Phil: Will the Strait of Hormuz reopen to all LNG traffic before May 2026?

Phillip Godzin’s pgodzinai forecasts 5%

This is its condensed report. Full version here.

Grok response:

1. Title: How Iran Has Effectively Closed the Strait of Hormuz
   Description: Bloomberg article on Iran’s blockade and naval escorts.
   Published: March 19, 2026 (1 hour ago)
   Summary: Iran has effectively closed the Strait through attacks on shipping, halting about a fifth of global LNG supply mostly from Qatar. Major news outlets report no regular international LNG traffic, with only sporadic sanctioned vessels passing. Reopening requires a ceasefire, as current risks prevent insurance and escorts for LNG carriers.[1][2]
2. Title: Trump Seeks End to Attacks on Energy Sites as Gas Fields Burn
   Description: Bloomberg on US efforts amid ongoing disruptions.
   Published: March 19, 2026 (3 hours ago)
   Summary: Efforts to reopen the Strait, a chokepoint for 20% of global oil and LNG, face Iranian resistance with continued attacks. No LNG carriers reported transiting recently, exacerbating global shortages. Major outlets confirm severe restrictions persist.[3]
3. Title: European Gas Jumps 35% After World’s Top LNG Plant Hit By Iran
   Description: Bloomberg on market impacts from Qatar facility attack.
   Published: March 19, 2026 (6 hours ago)
   Summary: Qatar’s LNG facilities attacked, halting exports; Strait remains closed to most traffic. Crisis won’t end with war alone due to damage; no reopening for LNG noted. Energy prices surge as 20% of supply blocked.[4]
4. Title: Iran War: Hormuz Reopening Looks Unlikely Without a Ceasefire
   Description: Bloomberg analysis on prospects amid war.
   Published: March 18, 2026 (1 day ago)
   Summary: US push to reopen fails without ceasefire; LNG traffic zero for weeks. Iran vows sustained closure; experts see no near-term normalization. Global crisis deepens with trapped carriers.[5]
5. Title: Unblocking Strait of Hormuz Is in China’s Interest, Greer Says
   Description: Bloomberg on diplomatic pressures.
   Published: March 18, 2026 (1 day ago)
   Summary: China urged to help reopen amid halted flows; only select Chinese vessels pass. No broad LNG resumption; restrictions target US allies. War escalation blocks progress.[6]
6. Title: Traffic is trickling through Strait of Hormuz
   Description: CNBC tracker on vessel movements.
   Published: March 18, 2026 (1 day ago)
   Summary: Traffic down to trickle post-Feb 28 war start; 21 tankers total since, none LNG recently. 400+ vessels backlog; insurance voided, no escorts. LNG carriers trapped inside Gulf.[7]
7. Title: Strait of Hormuz: Which countries’ ships has Iran allowed safe passage to
   Description: Al Jazeera on selective access.
   Published: March 16, 2026 (3 days ago)
   Summary: Iran allows non-US/allied ships; LNG halted for most international traffic. Qatar exports stopped after attacks; strait open only selectively. No full reopening reported.[8]
8. Title: Hormuz traffic increases, at least two sanctioned ships cross strait
   Description: S&P Global on daily tracking.
   Published: March 11, 2026
   Summary: Traffic rose slightly to 8 ships on Mar 10 from 3, but LNG zero for 10 days straight. Normal: 35 LNG/LPG daily; now restricted severely. Sanctioned vessels only.[2][9]
9. Title: See tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz come to a standstill
   Description: Reuters graphic on traffic halt.
   Published: March 5, 2026
   Summary: Tanker traffic standstill since war; LNG similarly halted. Data as of Mar 10 shows persistence. Major outlets confirm no recovery.[10]
10. Title: With the Strait of Hormuz choked by war, the Panama Canal reaps…
    Description: CNN on rerouting effects.
    Published: March 12, 2026 (7 days ago)
    Summary: Strait severely restricted; LNG from Qatar/US East Coast rerouted. No normalization; war spirals. Panama traffic up as alternative.[11]

Current Status and Recent Developments

As of March 19, 2026, major news outlets including Bloomberg, Reuters, and Al Jazeera uniformly report that the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed or severely restricted to international maritime LNG traffic due to the ongoing US-Israeli-Iran war that began around February 28, 2026.[1][7] Iranian forces have conducted attacks on commercial vessels, Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG complex (world’s largest, ~20% global supply), and other Gulf energy sites, leading to zero LNG carrier transits for at least 10-19 consecutive days (normal pre-war: ~35 LNG/LPG daily).[2][9] Approximately 20-280 LNG and tankers are trapped in the Persian Gulf, with backlogs of 400+ vessels outside; insurance providers have canceled coverage, and no US naval escorts are provided, paralyzing operations.[7][12]

Only sporadic transits occur: 21 tankers total since war start (mostly oil, some sanctioned/Iranian-linked or Chinese), rising slightly to 8 ships on March 10 but still no LNG; Iran allows selective passage for non-US/ally flagged vessels (e.g., some Chinese, Indian LPG).[2][8] QatarEnergy declared force majeure on LNG shipments March 4; South Pars gas field and other hubs damaged.[13]

Escalation and No Reopening Signals

No major outlet reports reopening to unrestricted international LNG traffic. Instead, updates show escalation: Iranian Expediency Council member stated March 14 the strait “will remain closed”; fresh attacks March 19 on Ras Laffan, Saudi/UAE sites.[14] Bloomberg experts note reopening “unlikely without ceasefire,” as Trump seeks diplomatic pressure (e.g., via China) but faces resistance.[5][6] X posts from March 19 confirm paralysis: “Strait closed,” “LNG ships trapped,” energy crisis accelerating.[15][16]

Economic Data and Impacts (Recent Stats)

• LNG traffic: 0 carriers March 1-19 (tracking data March 10-18).[9]
• Global share affected: 20-21% LNG/oil pre-war (EIA/IEA 2024-25 baselines hold).[17]
• Market reaction (March 19): European TTF gas +35% to €54-70/MWh; oil Oman $150+/bbl, Brent-US discount $20+.[4]
  Rerouting via Panama/Suez up, but insufficient for LNG volumes; South Asia demand cut 2-3Mt Q2-Q3 per Wood Mackenzie (March 11 data).[18]

No authoritative tracker (e.g., EIA chokepoint update post-2025) shows resumption; all sources indicate sustained halt through at least mid-March, with war dynamics pointing to prolonged restriction absent de-escalation.[19]

=== Forecast Result ===

Reasoning: Strait of Hormuz LNG Traffic Reopening by May 2026

Current Situation Assessment

As of March 19, 2026:

• Active war between US/Israel and Iran began ~February 28, 2026 (three weeks ago)
• Zero LNG carriers have transited the strait since war start (normal: ~35 LNG/LPG daily)
• Active escalation: fresh attacks on Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG complex (world’s largest) today
• 400+ vessel backlog; insurance canceled; no naval escorts
• Iran explicitly vows continued closure
• Only selective passage for non-US ally vessels (some Chinese/Indian oil tankers)
• QatarEnergy declared force majeure on LNG shipments March 4

Resolution Requirements

The question requires that LNG traffic is not halted or severely restricted through May 31, 2026 — meaning full, unrestricted access for all international LNG carriers. This is an extremely high bar.

Key Assumptions and Failure Probabilities

Assumption 1: No ceasefire within ~10 weeks

• War is 3 weeks old and actively escalating
• No peace negotiations reported; Iran vows sustained closure
• Historical precedent: wars of this scale rarely end in weeks (Iran-Iraq Tanker War lasted 8 years; Red Sea Houthi disruption lasted 1+ year)
• P(ceasefire by early-mid May): ~10-12%

Assumption 2: Even with ceasefire, full reopening takes significant additional time

• Mine clearance, insurance reinstatement, infrastructure repair (Ras Laffan damaged)
• Trust-building and verification period needed
• P(full unrestricted LNG reopening within weeks of ceasefire): ~25-30%

Assumption 3: No forced reopening without ceasefire

• US naval escorts discussed but not implemented; Iran actively hostile
• P(forced full reopening via military escorts): ~3%, and P(it results in unrestricted all-country LNG traffic): ~20%

Probability Calculation

• Path 1 (ceasefire → reopening): 0.11 × 0.27 × 0.70 (stays open) ≈ 2.1%
• Path 2 (forced reopening without ceasefire): 0.03 × 0.20 ≈ 0.6%
• Path 3 (dramatic regime change/capitulation): ~0.5%
• Path 4 (unexpected diplomatic breakthrough, e.g., China-brokered): ~1%

Combined: ~4.2%

Additional Considerations

• The question’s background explicitly states war has halted LNG traffic — this is the baseline
• Active escalation today (attacks on Ras Laffan) suggests worsening, not improving
• Even if strait technically reopens, damaged Qatar infrastructure limits LNG supply
• Historical base rate: only ~35% of forecast questions resolve positively
• I tend toward overconfidence, so I should not go lower than warranted by actual analysis

Probability: 5%

End

About The Author

Phillip Godzin

See https://www.linkedin.com/in/pgodzin/
Principal Software Engineer at JWP Connatix

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