Geopolitical volatility, such as potential escalations in US-Iran or Israeli-Iranian relations, remains a significant uncertainty. Conditional risks...
Geopolitical Events
The current evidence strongly favors a No resolution. LNG traffic has been effectively absent since July, exporters...
The probability of Brent Crude oil prices falling below $50 per barrel in 2026 is very low,...
Oil has occasionally fallen 40% or more over a few months during severe demand shocks, abrupt geopolitical...
The current evidence strongly favors No. LNG traffic is not merely below normal; it is described as...
The strait, a crucial global energy transit point, has seen a drastic reduction in shipping traffic due...
As of August 2026, the likelihood of Brent Crude falling below $50 per barrel by the end...
There is a low probability of unimpeded LNG traffic through the Strait of Hormuz by the end...
LNG traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely restricted or effectively halted at roughly 13% of...
The situation in the Strait of Hormuz is complex, characterized by stalled U.S.-Iran negotiations that hinder a...