October 20, 2026

Update

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Photo: A commercial lander that will be at the forefront of NASA’s efforts to establish a Moon Base, humanity’s first lunar outpost, has passed a series of critical tests at the agency’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California. The tests simulated the extreme temperatures and vacuum of space, as well as the intense shaking and ear-splitting roar of launch. Results show that Voyager Technologies’ Griffin Mission One (Griffin-1) spacecraft is ready to survive the rigors of space exploration. Source: https://www.nasa.gov/missions/moon-base/nasa-jpl-testing-readies-voyager-technologies-lander-for-moon-mission/
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The critical-path risk is still the commercial lander test article. Both providers have schedule issues: SpaceX’s HLS work is reported behind, and Blue Origin suffered a significant New Glenn pad explosion and is still rebuilding toward return-to-flight.
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Phil: Will an Artemis III orbital demonstration mission succeed by the end of 2027?

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A handout picture made available by The Romanian Agency for Saving Human Life at Sea (ARSVOM) shows “Wine trader” ship in the territorial waters of Romania near Sulina, on October 15, 2026. Romanian President Nicusor Dan said drone attacks on vessels in the Black Sea were “unacceptable” and must stop, after two ships were struck off the country’s coast, spillover from Russia’s war with Ukraine. Source: https://www.kyivpost.com/analysis/87288
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Phil: Will a ceasefire or armistice be declared in Ukraine in 2026?

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Image: The GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast bomb. The MOAB is also called “The Mother of all Bombs” by scientists and the community alike. Source: https://www.war.gov/Multimedia/Photos/igphoto/2001732840/, an official website of the United States Government.
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Jeremy: Will Strait of Hormuz LNG traffic become de facto unimpeded by the end of 2026?

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