Phil: Will the Strait of Hormuz reopen to all international maritime LNG traffic before July 31, 2026?

This is its condensed report. Full version here.

Grok response:

Recent developments indicate the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed or severely restricted to commercial LNG traffic as of June 11, 2026, amid ongoing US-Iran military escalations.[1][2]

Limited sporadic transits of a handful of LNG tankers (roughly nine total loaded Qatari vessels since the February 2026 conflict onset) have occurred in brief windows, such as late May and early June, but volumes are far below pre-war levels and do not constitute full reopening.[3][4]

Iran has repeatedly tied any sustained reopening to the US lifting its naval blockade and related demands, with recent US strikes on June 10 prompting Tehran to re-announce a complete closure on June 11, warning vessels of attacks.[1][5]

1. “Is Strait of Hormuz now open? More oil, LNG tankers cross …” (Gulf News, May 25, 2026)
This article reports limited resumption of tanker movements through the strait after months of disruption from the US-Israeli war on Iran. Shipping data showed a few LNG tankers (e.g., Fuwairit and Al Rayyan from Qatar’s Ras Laffan) exiting toward Pakistan, China, and India, alongside some crude oil vessels, though volumes remained far below pre-war norms under Iranian-imposed controls.[4]

2.. “LNG carriers abort Strait of Hormuz transit attempt” (MarineTraffic/Facebook video, ~June 8, 2026)
Two Qatari-laden LNG carriers attempting to exit reversed course, underscoring that exports through the strait remain effectively stalled despite some limited internal Gulf movements. This highlights persistent disruption to global gas flows since the conflict began.[7]

3. “Oil and LNG tankers exit Hormuz, heading for Pakistan and …” (Reuters, May 25, 2026)
Ship-tracking data confirmed three LNG tankers (Fuwairit, Al Rayyan, Al Hamra) and one VLCC with Iraqi crude passing the strait recently after being stranded, marking early signs of limited resumption post-ceasefire attempts.[8]

4. “Strait of Hormuz Traffic | Live Vessel Tracking Dashboard” (hormuztracking.com, ~June 9-11, 2026)
Outbound commercial traffic, including LNG carriers, showed zero transits in recent days (full 72-hour period with no activity), with the strait described as experiencing unprecedented complete halt and no vessels attempting passage due to security risks.[9]

5. “Fifth Qatari-Controlled LNG Tanker Exits Hormuz Strait” (MarineLink, June 9, 2026)
A fifth Qatari LNG tanker (Al Daayen) transited east of the strait heading to China around early June, bringing the total exited loaded vessels to nine since the war started—still a tiny fraction of normal flows.[3]

6. “Iran shuts Hormuz strait: But wasn’t it already closed?” (Al Jazeera, June 11, 2026)
Iran announced a complete closure to all oil tankers and commercial ships on June 11 in response to recent US strikes, with warnings that attempting vessels would be targeted; this follows prior intermittent restrictions and brief openings.[1]

7. “2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis” (Wikipedia, accessed June 11, 2026)
Summarizes the blockade by Iran since February 28, 2026, in response to US-Israeli strikes, with shipping largely blocked; notes ~20-25% of global oil/LNG normally transits, with major supply disruptions persisting into June.[12]

Additional context: Live trackers (e.g., straits.live on June 11) confirm only ~2 transits vs. ~94/day normal, with Brent crude at elevated levels (~$95).[2] Negotiations continue but remain stalled over blockades, tolls, and nuclear issues, with no major news outlet reporting a full reopening to unrestricted international LNG traffic as of the latest updates.[5][13] Sporadic limited movements do not equate to the resolution criteria of reopening to all such traffic.

=== Forecast Result ===

Reasoning and Analysis

Current Situation Assessment (as of June 11, 2026):

The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed since early March 2026 following US-Israeli strikes on Iran. Critical data points:

Today’s Development: Iran just announced a complete closure to all oil tankers and commercial ships on June 11, 2026, in response to US strikes on June 10 – this is extremely recent and represents escalation, not de-escalation.
Traffic Data: Normal traffic was ~94-130 vessels/day; current traffic is ~2 vessels/day (95%+ reduction). Live trackers show zero outbound commercial transits in the last 72 hours.
LNG Specifically: Only 5-9 Qatari LNG tankers have transited since the war began – a tiny fraction of normal flows and under special arrangements (tolls, political clearances, naval escorts).

Resolution Criteria Analysis:

The question requires major news outlets to report the strait is “reopened to all international maritime LNG traffic” with traffic “no longer halted or severely restricted.” Current limited, sporadic transits under special Iranian-imposed arrangements do NOT meet this high bar.

Expert Assessments:

International Crisis Group and other analysts project closure could persist until at least September 2026 or beyond
Wood Mackenzie labels “quick peace with reopening by July” as best-case scenario, not baseline
Key obstacles remain: Iran’s nuclear program, Lebanon conflict, toll disputes, ongoing military escalations

Time Remaining: ~50 days

Critical Assumptions and Failure Probabilities:

No major diplomatic breakthrough in next 50 days: ~85% likely correct. If wrong (15% chance), could change outcome dramatically.
June 11 closure announcement reflects ongoing hostility, not pre-deal posturing: ~88% likely correct. If wrong (12% chance), could signal imminent resolution.
Escalation pattern continues through July: ~80% likely correct given today’s events.

Probability Calculation:

Probability of sudden diplomatic breakthrough sufficient to reopen: ~12-15%
Probability that such breakthrough translates to full LNG reopening before July 31 (requires implementation time, insurance normalization, etc.): ~50-60%
Combined: ~7-9%

Factors Pushing Lower: