Phillip Godzin‘s pgodzinai forecasts 7%

This is the condensed version. The full forecast rationale is here.

Perplexity response:

# Information Assessment for Artemis Moon Landing Forecast

I have limited search results (2 sources) to analyze this question. Here is the relevant information:

Citation 1: NASA Safety Department – Artemis III High Risk Assessment

Title: “NASA safety department says next Moon mission is ‘high risk'”
Source: UNILAD Tech
Publication Date: February 26, 2026
Summary: NASA’s Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel (ASAP) has flagged Artemis III as “high risk,” citing concerns including SpaceX’s Human Landing System (HLS) not yet achieving orbit, the mission requiring up to 15 in-space refuelings, and the first crewed use of the HLS. The report notes NASA’s reduced workforce (15,000 employees in 2025 vs. 35,000 during Apollo era) and budget constraints. The panel suggests a slower approach similar to the Apollo program’s incremental testing strategy, and Artemis III’s potential 2028 launch window could be pushed back further.

Citation 2: NASA Official Artemis III Schedule

Title: “Artemis III – NASA”
Source: NASA.gov
Publication Date: Current (no specific date provided, but official schedule page)
Summary: NASA’s official schedule lists Artemis III for launch in 2028. The mission will build on Artemis II and add new capabilities including the human landing system and advanced spacesuits to send the first humans to explore the lunar South Pole region.

Key Timeline Analysis

The official NASA timeline lists Artemis III for 2028, not 2027[2]. However, earlier planning had targeted 2027. The February 26, 2026 safety assessment indicates that Artemis III faces “high risk” designation and could potentially experience further delays beyond the current 2028 window[1].

Critical factors that would need to resolve favorably for a 2027 landing:

SpaceX HLS Development: The Human Landing System has not yet achieved orbit, and ASAP flags this as a significant concern[1]
In-Space Refueling: The mission requires up to 15 in-space refuelings, representing complex operations on the first crewed HLS flight[1]
Artemis II Success: The April 2026 launch of Artemis II is a prerequisite, and the Space Launch System has already experienced delays (the rocket was returned to the hangar for repairs as of late January 2026)[1]

Current assessment: The timeline for a 2027 lunar landing appears unlikely given the official 2028 schedule and the safety panel’s “high risk” assessment citing developmental and resource constraints.

Grok response:

Title: Artemis III: NASA’s First Human Mission to Lunar South Pole – NASA
Source: [web:56]
Published: February 26, 2026 (accessed)
Description: Official NASA page for Artemis III mission.
Summary: The mission is currently planned for 2027, involving a crewed landing at the lunar South Pole using Orion and SpaceX Starship HLS. An uncrewed Starship demo landing is required beforehand. No delays are mentioned on the page, but Starship must meet safety standards prior to crewed use.
Title: NASA safety department says next Moon mission is ‘high risk’ as it …
Source: [web:45]
Published: February 26, 2026 (1 hour ago)
Description: Report on NASA safety review of Artemis III.
Summary: NASA’s safety department labeled Artemis III as high risk due to ongoing issues. With Artemis II not yet launched, Artemis III’s 2028 window could slip further. The report highlights challenges in meeting the 2027 target.
Title: NASA quietly changed Artemis III timeline to 2028
Source: [web:47]
Published: February 2, 2026
Description: Discussion on NASA’s website update.
Summary: NASA’s Artemis III page updated on January 26, 2026, to list launch as “By 2028” instead of 2027. Users note this quiet change amid ongoing delays. The official page accessed later still lists 2027, suggesting possible reversion or discrepancy.
Title: Artemis 2 rocket rollback latest news: NASA’s giant moon …
Source: [web:48]
Published: February 25, 2026 (1 day ago)
Description: Live updates on Artemis II rocket issues.
Summary: Artemis II SLS rocket rolled back due to problems, delaying launch no earlier than April 2026. This follows previous setbacks like a helium leak. Artemis II must succeed before Artemis III proceeds.[1][2]
Title: First Motion Set for Artemis II Rollback – NASA
Source: [web:9]
Published: February 24, 2026 (2 days ago)
Description: Official NASA update on Artemis II.
Summary: NASA began rollback of SLS rocket and Orion on February 25 for repairs after anomalies. Launch now targeted no earlier than April 2026. This crewed flyby is prerequisite for landing missions.[2]
Title: NASA safety panel warns Starship lunar lander could be delayed by …
Source: [web:0]
Published: September 20, 2025
Description: NASA advisory on Starship HLS schedule.
Summary: NASA’s safety panel estimates Starship HLS could be years late for 2027 Artemis III. Key demos like orbital refueling are pending. SpaceX targets refueling demo in 2026, uncrewed landing 2027, but risks persist.
Title: SpaceX Starship timeline delays astronaut moon landing for NASA’s …
Source: [web:1]
Published: November 17, 2025
Description: Report on leaked SpaceX document.
Summary: SpaceX internal timeline shows Artemis III slipping to 2028 due to Starship development delays. Critical milestones like propellant transfer unproven. This aligns with NASA concerns over HLS readiness.
Title: China Advances 2030 Lunar Timeline with Successful Long March …
Source: [web:18]
Published: February 11, 2026
Description: Update on China’s lunar program.
Summary: China tested Long March 10 components, aiming for full orbital flight in 2027. Crewed landing targeted before 2030, with robotic lander tests in 2027-2028. No plans for human landing before 2027.
Title: China is going to the Moon by 2030. Here’s what’s known about the …
Source: [web:19]
Published: November 11, 2025
Description: Overview of China’s crewed lunar plans.
Summary: China’s first crewed lunar landing planned before 2030, with uncrewed Mengzhou tests ongoing. Lander prototypes testing since 2024, robotic missions 2027-2028. Far from 2027 human landing capability.
Title: India aims to land humans on Moon by 2027: Isro chairman
Source: [web:35]
Published: January 7, 2026
Description: ISRO statement on lunar ambitions.
Summary: ISRO aims to develop human lunar landing spacecraft by 2027, but first crewed orbital flight (Gaganyaan) targeted for 2027. Actual Moon landing projected by 2040 per other officials. No near-term landing plans.

NASA’s Artemis program remains the primary pathway for human lunar landing before end of 2027, with Artemis III as the key mission requiring a surface landing via SpaceX Starship HLS.[3] As of February 26, 2026, the official NASA Artemis III page lists a 2027 launch, but prerequisite Artemis II—a crewed lunar flyby—has faced repeated delays, with the SLS rocket rolled back to the Vehicle Assembly Building on February 25 due to a helium flow anomaly and other issues, pushing launch no earlier than April 2026.[2 ][1] A NASA safety review released today deems Artemis III “high risk,” noting potential slippage to 2028 or later given Artemis II’s status and Starship challenges.[4]

Starship HLS progress is a major bottleneck: NASA panels from late 2025 warned of multi-year delays, with unproven technologies like in-space refueling critical for the lunar landing.[5][6] SpaceX plans orbital refueling demos in 2026 and uncrewed lunar landing in 2027, but no crewed landing has been scheduled before Artemis III, and recent Starship tests emphasize Earth orbit goals first. NASA’s page confirms an uncrewed Starship demo must precede crewed operations, with no completion dates provided.[3]

Alternative programs show no credible paths to human landing by 2027. China’s crewed lunar program targets 2030, with Long March 10 orbital tests in 2027 and robotic landers following.[7][8] India’s Gaganyaan achieves orbital crewed flight in 2027, but lunar landing is aspirational by 2040, not 2027.[9] Russia, private entities, and others lack announced human lunar landing plans before 2027.

Recent updates (February 2026) highlight mounting delays in NASA’s program, with expert panels and officials expressing skepticism on 2027 feasibility amid technical hurdles. No prediction market data specifically on this resolution was identified in searches. Historical context: Artemis I succeeded in 2022; no human lunar surface activity since Apollo 17 in 1972.[3]

Extracted resolution criteria links:
[‘https://www.nasa.gov/missions/artemis/artemis-iii/‘]

=== Forecast Result ===

Current Status Assessment

Artemis II (Prerequisite Lunar Flyby):

As of February 25, 2026, the SLS rocket was rolled back to the Vehicle Assembly Building due to a helium flow anomaly
Launch is now targeted “no earlier than April 2026”
This crewed flyby MUST succeed before any landing mission can proceed

Artemis III (Landing Mission):

NASA’s official schedule has quietly shifted from 2027 to 2028 (noted in late January 2026)
NASA’s Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel (ASAP) released a report TODAY (February 26, 2026) labeling Artemis III as “high risk”
Internal SpaceX document leaked in November 2025 also indicated 2028 timeline

SpaceX Starship HLS:

Has not yet achieved orbit
Requires up to 15 in-space refuelings (unprecedented complexity)
Orbital refueling demonstrations planned for 2026
Uncrewed lunar landing demo required before crewed operations – targeting 2027
NASA safety panel warned in September 2025 of potential “multi-year delays”

Alternative Programs:

China: Crewed lunar landing targeted for 2030
India: First crewed orbital flight (Gaganyaan) in 2027; lunar landing aspirational by 2040
No other credible programs exist with 2027 capability

Critical Path Requirements for 2027 Landing

For resolution YES, all of the following must occur:

Artemis II successful launch and completion (~mid-2026)
SpaceX complete orbital refueling demonstrations
SpaceX complete uncrewed Starship lunar landing
NASA advance timeline from current 2028 target back to 2027
Artemis III launch and successful lunar surface landing

Key Assumptions and Failure Probabilities

Assumption 1: NASA’s 2028 schedule will hold (not accelerate to 2027)

Probability of being wrong: ~10%
Impact if wrong: Would significantly increase YES probability

Assumption 2: SpaceX HLS will continue facing development challenges

Probability of being wrong: ~15%
Impact if wrong: Would moderately increase YES probability

Assumption 3: No black swan event (political pressure, funding surge) forces acceleration

Probability of being wrong: ~5%
Impact if wrong: Would moderately increase YES probability

Probability Calculation

Base case (official timeline holds):

NASA officially targets 2028
If 2028 timeline holds with normal distribution, chance of early 2027 completion: ~5%

Accelerated scenario (everything goes right):

Artemis II succeeds in April 2026: 70%
Post-flight review complete by July 2026: 50%
All SpaceX HLS demos complete by Sept 2027: 15-20%
NASA advances timeline: 10-15%
Artemis III launches and lands successfully by Dec 2027: Compound probability very low

Combined assessment: