Botmaster Jeremy Lichtman's Sudan conflict deaths forecast, Dec. 26, 2025

How many state-based conflict deaths in Sudan will be reported by ACLED for 2025?

Jeremy Lichtman’s Multi-AI Oracle predicts today:

Less than 1,000: 1%

Between 1,000 and 3,000: 5%

Between 3,000 and 5,000: 9%

Between 5,000 and 8,000: 14%

Between 8,000 and 12,000: 24%

More than 12,000: 47%

Obtaining outside data.
Checking internet sources, using keywords: Sudan 2025 conflict deaths
News from various sources:

Here is a summary of the relevant content related to “Sudan 2025 deaths”:

1. **Health Care Attacks**:
– The World Health Organization (WHO) reports an increase in deadly and widespread attacks on health care facilities in Sudan, severely impacting access to essential services.
– Since the conflict began in April 2023, 201 attacks on health care have resulted in 1,858 deaths and 490 injuries. In 2025 alone, there were 65 attacks causing more than 1,620 deaths and 276 injuries.
– A recent attack on a hospital in Dalanj, South Kordofan, resulted in nine health worker deaths and 17 injuries.
– A kindergarten and a rural hospital in South Kordofan were struck, killing 114 people, including 60 children.

2. **Drone Strikes and War Crimes**:
– A wave of drone attacks in Kordofan has killed at least 104 civilians, marking an escalation in the ongoing civil war.
– Notable attacks include strikes on a kindergarten and a hospital in Kalogi, South Kordofan, killing 89 people, including 43 children.
– UN officials have condemned these attacks as potential war crimes.

3. **RSF Atrocities**:
– The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have been implicated in systematic violence, including mass killings in El-Fasher in Darfur.
– Yale University’s analysis shows satellite evidence of RSF erasing traces of these mass killings.

4. **Humanitarian Crisis**:
– The conflict has displaced more than 40,000 people in North Kordofan. Around 30% of health facilities there are non-functional.
– The Health Minister of North Kordofan reported over 13,609 cholera cases, with the medical infrastructure under severe strain.

5. **Diplomatic Efforts**:
– Despite the violence, diplomatic talks have resumed, with the US and Egypt calling for a ceasefire and Sudan’s Sovereignty Council engaging with international leaders to seek resolution.

6. **Overall Impact**:
– The war, which began in April 2023, has officially claimed over 40,000 lives and displaced millions, creating the world’s largest humanitarian crisis.
– About 30 million Sudanese require assistance, with the UN describing the situation as the world’s biggest humanitarian crisis of 2025.

7. **International Reactions**:
– International agencies and nations are calling for a halt to attacks on civilians and urging humanitarian access, while aid efforts continue to fall short of the necessary funding.
The situation in Sudan remains dire, with ongoing violence, humanitarian challenges, and limited international intervention despite calls for peace and resolution.

.Fact-checked summary:
In 2025, Sudan experienced a significant number of state-based conflict deaths and related impacts, as reported by various reliable sources, providing context for potential figures that ACLED may report. There were 65 attacks on health care facilities resulting in over 1,620 deaths and 276 injuries, demonstrating critical importance to overall conflict mortality. Additional violent incidents included an attack on a hospital in Dalanj killing 9 health workers, strikes in South Kordofan resulting in 114 deaths—including 60 children—and strikes in Kalogi causing 89 fatalities, of which 43 were children. Drone strikes in Kordofan led to at least 104 civilian deaths. The RSF was cited for engaging in systematic violence, including mass killings in El-Fasher. The broader humanitarian landscape included the displacement of over 40,000 people in North Kordofan and the United Nations designating the situation as the largest humanitarian crisis of 2025, with 30 million individuals requiring assistance. Since April 2023, the ongoing war has resulted in over 40,000 deaths, underscoring the severe toll of state-based conflicts in the region during this period.

OpenAI gives a base rate of (Open AI failed to return a value)

The question difficulty is rated 7 (0 to 10)

Historical weighted factors include:
State-based conflict deaths in prior years in similar regions, 0.4

Frequency of major violent incidents in Sudan in 2025, 0.3

Historical figures of humanitarian crises and reported fatalities during conflicts by ACLED, 0.3

A Bayesian calculation could be performed as follows:
For Bayesian calculation, assume prior of 0.5 for high fatalities due to the region’s tendency towards conflict.

Incorporate historical factors: 0.4 * 1.0 (past conflict deaths) + 0.3 * 1.0 (major incidents) + 0.3 * 0.8 (historical reporting by ACLED) = 0.92.

Use likelihood from historical and current events to update prior: 0.5 * 0.92 / (0.5 * 0.92 + 0.5 * 0.08) = 0.92.

Bayesian base rate: 0.92

Sufficient news to provide a good forecast? 1 (0 or 1)

News is relevant, topical and unbiased? 1 (0 or 1)

Question classification: scenario_based_forecast
Expected time (days) until question close: 5

The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:

The base rate of 0.75 is based on the historical incidence of conflict-related deaths in Sudan, the continuity of violent incidents, and ACLED’s comprehensive reporting on such events, all of which indicate a high probability of high figures.

Ideally, the news feed would contain the following sorts of information for a better forecast:
Additional information that would improve the forecast includes: precise current estimates of state-based fatalities, insights on future trajectories of the conflict in Sudan, potential peace negotiations or ceasefires, and updates from ACLED on reporting methodologies or data integrity issues.

Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate:
The situation may stabilize unexpectedly or reporting inaccuracies from ACLED could alter the expected casualty figures significantly, leading to a deviation in expected outcomes.

The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:

– End of year ACLED reporting. Certain

– Continued conflict and violence in Sudan leading to high casualty figures. Highly Likely

– Verification and coverage of accurate data by ACLED on conflict-related fatalities in Sudan. Highly Likely

Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“Less than 1000”: 0.01, “Between 1000 and 3000”: 0.02, “Between 3000 and 5000”: 0.05, “Between 5000 and 8000”: 0.12, “Between 8000 and 12000”: 0.25, “More than 12000”: 0.55] – confidence: 7)

Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“Less than 1000”: 0.01, “Between 1000 and 3000”: 0.05, “Between 3000 and 5000”: 0.15, “Between 5000 and 8000”: 0.25, “Between 8000 and 12000”: 0.3, “More than 12000”: 0.24] – confidence: 7)

Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“Less than 1000”: 0.01, “Between 1000 and 3000”: 0.05, “Between 3000 and 5000”: 0.1, “Between 5000 and 8000”: 0.15, “Between 8000 and 12000”: 0.2, “More than 12000”: 0.49] – confidence: 8)

Question Type: Multiple Choice

Confidence: 7
MAPD:

Avg: 0.074444444444444,

Max: 0.20666666666667

# LLM responses: 3

Explanations of the above statistical measures here —>

Model value:

Less than 1,000: 1%

Between 1,000 and 3,000: 5%

Between 3,000 and 5,000: 9%

Between 5,000 and 8,000: 14%

Between 8,000 and 12,000: 24%

More than 12,000: 47%

The reasoning across the different AI summaries converges on the prediction of high conflict mortality in Sudan for 2025, primarily due to the ongoing warfare since April 2023, which has already resulted in over 40,000 deaths. The situation is exacerbated by systematic violence, including drone strikes and mass killings, particularly by the RSF. ACLED’s comprehensive reporting and historical data patterns suggest the death toll is likely to exceed 12,000 for 2025, with considerations for underreporting or stabilization appearing unlikely. However, potential inaccuracies in data or unexpected diplomatic resolutions could influence these figures, indicating a need for cautious interpretation of ongoing trends and the current scope of the humanitarian crisis.

Runtime: 130 seconds.

Past forecasts by Phil’s and Jeremy ’s bots —>

Below, a forecast of state-based conflict fatalities for Sudan in the VIEWS machine forecasting competition, which is an aggregate of the forecasts of twenty machine learning competitors. Our botmasters, Phil Godzin and Jeremy Lichtman, are conducting a side experiment in collaboration with VIEWS. The VIEWS aggregate forecast is much lower than ours.