Botmaster Jeremy Lichtman's Sudan conflict deaths forecast, Nov. 28, 2025

How many state-based conflict deaths in Sudan will be reported by ACLED for 2025?

Jeremy Lichtman’s Multi-AI Oracle predicts today:

Less than 1,000: 1%

Between 1,000 and 3,000: 2%

Between 3,000 and 5,000: 5%

Between 5,000 and 8,000: 12%

Between 8,000 and 12,000: 25%

More than 12,000: 55%

11–14 minutes read

Obtaining outside data.
Checking internet sources, using keywords: Sudan conflict deaths 2025
News from various sources:

The conflict in Sudan, which began in 2021 after a failed alliance between the Sudanese military and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), has escalated into a major humanitarian catastrophe by 2025. The death toll is estimated to be in the hundreds of thousands, potentially reaching as high as 400,000, with over 10 million people displaced. The military, supported by Egypt, controls much of northern and eastern Sudan, while the RSF, backed by the United Arab Emirates (UAE), has taken control of western regions such as the city of El Fasher. The conflict has involved significant external influences, turning into a proxy war due to various geopolitical interests in the Nile and Red Sea regions.

The struggle for power between General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan of the Sudanese Armed Forces and General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti) of the RSF arose partly from personal enmity and broader ethnic and ideological narratives. The clash has now involved myriad regional actors, with the UAE seeking influence over the Red Sea, supporting RSF against Saudi and Egyptian dominance. Additionally, the conflict is complicated by issues surrounding the Nile’s water politics involving Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan.

Humanitarian conditions are dire, exacerbated by a cholera outbreak that has affected thousands and resulted in over 3,000 deaths in Darfur alone. Both sides in the conflict have been accused of atrocities, including genocide-like actions by the RSF. Despite international calls for ceasefires, negotiations for peace have stalled, often due to both leader’s focus on internal power dynamics and the geopolitical interests of their regional supporters.

This multifaceted conflict has deepened ethnic tensions within Sudan, further complicating efforts to achieve peace and stability in the region.

Fact-checking news summary:
### Fact List with Evaluation
1. **Fact:** The conflict in Sudan began in 2021 after a failed alliance between the Sudanese military and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF).
– **Correctness:** True – The conflict indeed began in 2021 following tensions between these groups.
– **Importance:** Important – Sets the timeline and context for subsequent events.
– **Relevance:** True – Directly relevant to the conflict situation which influences conflict-related deaths.
2. **Fact:** By 2025, the death toll is estimated to be in the hundreds of thousands, potentially reaching as high as 400,000.
– **Correctness:** Insufficient data – It’s a projection for 2025, and verifiable data for 2025 isn’t available.
– **Importance:** Critical – Central to estimating conflict deaths for 2025.
– **Relevance:** True – Directly relevant to predicting conflict-related deaths.
3. **Fact:** Over 10 million people have been displaced due to the conflict by 2025.
– **Correctness:** Insufficient data – It’s a projection for 2025, and verifiable data isn’t available.
– **Importance:** Important – Reflects the humanitarian impact of the conflict.
– **Relevance:** True – Relevant to understanding the scale of the conflict.
4. **Fact:** The Sudanese military is supported by Egypt and controls much of northern and eastern Sudan.
– **Correctness:** Plausible but not verifiable with current data – Known alliances suggest Egypt’s support to the military, but specifics may vary.
– **Importance:** Important – Impacts the power dynamics and potential conflict zones.
– **Relevance:** True – Influences the strategic control and conflict death estimates.
5. **Fact:** The RSF is backed by the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and controls western regions such as the city of El Fasher.
– **Correctness:** Plausible but not verifiable with current data – UAE’s support for the RSF is known; specific territorial control could change.
– **Importance:** Important – Affects regional control and conflict impact.
– **Relevance:** True – Directly influences conflict dynamics.
6. **Fact:** The conflict has become a proxy war with geopolitical interests around the Nile and Red Sea regions.
– **Correctness:** True – There are ongoing geopolitical interests and proxy elements in the conflict.
– **Importance:** Important – Frames the international dimension of the conflict.
– **Relevance:** True – Relevant to understanding conflict drivers.
7. **Fact:** Struggle for power partly stemmed from personal enmity between General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo.
– **Correctness:** True – Personal rivalries are a noted component of the conflict.
– **Importance:** Important – Personal dynamics affect leadership decisions.
– **Relevance:** True – Helps explain ongoing tensions hindering resolution.
8. **Fact:** The cholera outbreak has affected thousands and resulted in over 3,000 deaths in Darfur.
– **Correctness:** Possible but requires verification – Such outbreaks are plausible given humanitarian conditions, but specific numbers need confirmation.
– **Importance:** Less important – While significant, it’s separate from conflict deaths.
– **Relevance:** True – Relevant to humanitarian impact but not the primary focus.
9. **Fact:** Both sides have been accused of atrocities, including genocide-like actions by the RSF.
– **Correctness:** True – Accusations of atrocities and severe human rights violations have been reported.
– **Importance:** Important – Human rights abuses contribute to conflict severity.
– **Relevance:** True – Influences international response and potential resolution.
10. **Fact:** International calls for ceasefires have stalled due to focus on internal power dynamics and geopolitical interests.
– **Correctness:** Plausible – Stalled ceasefire efforts are consistent with complex conflict dynamics.
– **Importance:** Important – Affects peace prospects and conflict continuation.
– **Relevance:** True – Directly influences conflict persistence and deaths.
11. **Fact:** Ethnic tensions have deepened due to the conflict.
– **Correctness:** True – Ethnic tensions are exacerbated in prolonged conflicts.
– **Importance:** Important – Affects long-term stability and reconciliation efforts.
– **Relevance:** True – Relevant to understanding barriers to peace.

Fact-checked summary:
The conflict in Sudan began in 2021 following tensions between the Sudanese military and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), setting the timeline and context for the subsequent events. The struggle for power partly stemmed from personal enmity between General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, affecting leadership decisions and ongoing tensions. The conflict has developed into a proxy war with geopolitical interests in the Nile and Red Sea regions, which frames the international dimension of the conflict. Both sides have been accused of atrocities, including genocide-like actions by the RSF, contributing to the conflict’s severity and influencing international response. Despite international calls for ceasefires, these have stalled due to internal power dynamics and geopolitical interests, directly affecting the continuation of the conflict. Additionally, ethnic tensions have deepened as a result of the conflict, impacting long-term stability and reconciliation
efforts.

OpenAI gives a base rate of resolution likelihood (Carolyn‘s note: OpenAi failed to return a value.)
The question difficulty is rated 8 (0 to 10)
Historical weighted factors include:
Length of previous Sudanese conflicts, 0.3
International mediation success in civil conflicts, 0.2
Internal political dynamics in Africa, 0.2
Geopolitical interests stability, 0.3
A Bayesian calculation could be performed as follows:
P(B|H) = (0.3 * P(Length of Sudanese conflicts resolved quickly)) + (0.2 * P(International mediation proceeds)) + (0.2 * P(Stable internal politics)) + (0.3 * P(Stability in geopolitical interests))
Bayesian base rate: 0.25
Sufficient news to provide a good forecast? 1 (0 or 1)
News is relevant, topical and unbiased? 1 (0 or 1)
Question classification: scenario_based_forecast
Expected time (days) until question close: 120
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate is derived considering the length and outcomes of previous conflicts in Sudan, the low success rate of international mediation in similar internal conflicts, the persistent instability in African internal politics, and the complexity added by geopolitical interests in the region.

Ideally, the news feed would contain the following sorts of information for a better forecast:
Additional data on recent political actions, documents or statements from international organizations, and on-the-ground reports would aid in refining this forecast.

Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate:
Recent developments, such as increased international focus on geopolitical interests and any unexpected internal political changes, could alter the conflict dynamics and resolution timeframe.

The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
Resolution of power struggle between Sudanese military and RSF unlikely – Successful international mediation resulting in a ceasefire unlikely – Resolution of geopolitical interests in the Nile and Red Sea regions improbable – Reduction in ethnic tensions within Sudan unlikely.

Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“Less than 1000”: 0.01, “Between 1000 and 3000”: 0.03, “Between 3000 and 5000”: 0.08, “Between 5000 and 8000”: 0.15, “Between 8000 and 12000”: 0.25, “More than 12000”: 0.48] – confidence: 6)

Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“Less than 1000”: 0.01, “Between 1000 and 3000”: 0.05, “Between 3000 and 5000”: 0.15, “Between 5000 and 8000”: 0.35, “Between 8000 and 12000”: 0.3, “More than 12000”: 0.14] – confidence: 4)

Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“Less than 1000”: 0.01, “Between 1000 and 3000”: 0.05, “Between 3000 and 5000”: 0.1, “Between 5000 and 8000”: 0.2, “Between 8000 and 12000”: 0.25, “More than 12000”: 0.39] – confidence: 6)

Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 6
MAPD: Avg: 0.075555555555556, Max: 0.22666666666667
# LLM responses: 3
Explanations of the above statistical measures here —>

Model value:
Less than 1,000: 15%
Between 1,000 and 3,000: 5%
Between 3,000 and 5,000: 10%
Between 5,000 and 8,000: 20%
Between 8,000 and 12,000: 25%
More than 12,000: 39%

The prediction concerning the conflict in Sudan revolves around the ongoing civil war that erupted in April 2023 between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces, which has already resulted in tens of thousands of deaths. Key factors influencing the forecast include the enduring animosity between military leaders al-Burhan and Dagalo, expansion of fighting, failed ceasefires, and geopolitical proxy war dynamics. The severity of humanitarian crises, ethnic violence, particularly in Darfur, and collapse of state institutions contribute to the expectation of sustained violence. Additionally, historical data supports the likelihood of high death tolls. However, predictions face uncertainties if sudden breakthroughs in peace negotiations occur, external interventions enforce a ceasefire, or geopolitical shifts resolve tensions. Unpredictable factors like economic collapse, weather, or disease outbreak might also unpredictably influence conflict dynamics.
Runtime: 228 seconds.

Past forecasts by Phil’s and Jeremy ’s bots —>

Below, a forecast of state-based conflict fatalities for Sudan in the VIEWS machine forecasting competition, which is an aggregate of the forecasts of twenty machine learning competitors. Our botmasters, Phil Godzin and Jeremy Lichtman, are conducting a side experiment in collaboration with VIEWS. The VIEWS aggregate forecast is much lower than ours.