Phil’s bot beats experts on “Will Russia change its key interest rate?”

This is a condensed version of pgodzin’s rationale. Full rationale here.

Perplexity response:

# Key Information for Forecasting

Based on the search results provided, I can present the following relevant citations:

Citation Summary Table

Current Status and Key Developments

The question has already been resolved as “Yes.” On February 13, 2026, the Central Bank of Russia changed its key interest rate from 16% to 15.5%—a reduction of 50 basis points[1][2][3]. This occurred before the end of 2026, meeting the resolution criteria.

Grok response:

1. Title: Bank of Russia cuts the key rate by 50 bp to 15.50% p.a. | Bank of Russia
   Description: Official page listing key rate press releases from the Central Bank of Russia.
   Date of Publication: February 13, 2026
   Summary: The Bank of Russia announced on February 13, 2026, that it cut the key rate from 16% to 15.50% per annum. The decision reflects the economy returning to balanced growth and ongoing disinflation after one-off factors. The bank will assess further cuts at upcoming meetings, with the next on March 20, 2026.[1]
2. Title: Calendar of key rate decisions | Bank of Russia
   Description: Official Bank of Russia calendar for monetary policy meetings in 2026.
   Date of Publication: Accessed February 2026 (ongoing calendar)
   Summary: The schedule lists key rate decision meetings including February 13 (already held), February 26, March 20, April 24, and others through the year. This provides opportunities for further rate changes before end-2026. No changes noted between December 2025 and February 13, 2026.[2]
3. Title: Monetary policy decisions | Bank of Russia
   Description: Bank of Russia page archiving recent key rate decisions.
   Date of Publication: February 13, 2026 (latest entry)
   Summary: On February 13, 2026, key rate cut by 50 bp to 15.50% p.a. Previous decision on December 19, 2025, cut by 50 bp to 16%. This confirms the rate was held at 16% until the February meeting.[3]
4. Title: Russia’s central bank signals rates to come down further … – Reuters
   Description: Reuters article on the latest Bank of Russia rate decision.
   Date of Publication: February 13, 2026
   Summary: Bank of Russia cut key rate by 50 bps to 15.5% on February 13, 2026, unexpectedly as markets expected a hold. The bank signaled potential further cuts amid slowing growth. 2026 GDP growth forecast unchanged at 0.5%-1.5%.[4]
5. Title: Russia Interest Rate – Trading Economics
   Description: Trading Economics tracker for Russia’s benchmark interest rate.
   Date of Publication: February 13, 2026 (updated)
   Summary: Bank of Russia cut rate to 15.5% on February 13, 2026, against market expectation of hold. Historical data shows peak at 21% earlier, cut to 16% in December 2025. Forward expectations point to further easing.[5]
6. Title: Russian Central Bank Trims Key Rate, Sees a More Balanced … – The Moscow Times
   Description: Coverage of the February rate decision by Moscow Times.
   Date of Publication: February 13, 2026
   Summary: Central Bank lowered key rate from 16% to 15.5% on first 2026 meeting. Decision supports economy amid disinflation. Bank narrowed 2026 average key rate forecast to 13.5%-14.5% from prior 13%-15%.[6]
7. Title: Russia Cuts Rate as Slowing Economy Outweighs Inflation Risk – Bloomberg
   Description: Bloomberg analysis of the rate cut and economic context.
   Date of Publication: February 13, 2026
   Summary: Benchmark rate cut 50 bps to 15.5% on February 13. Central bank updated average key rate forecast for 2026 to 13.5%-14.5%. Growth concerns trump inflation risks in decision.[7]
8. Title: Central Bank of Russia’s signal not a commitment, but there is now … – Interfax
   Description: Interfax report on post-decision forecasts.
   Date of Publication: February 13, 2026
   Summary: CBR narrowed 2026 average key rate forecast to 13.5%-14.5%. This implies multiple cuts expected throughout 2026. Economy shows balanced growth path per bank statement.[8]
9. Title: Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.) – Capital Economics
   Description: Capital Economics preview and post-analysis of February decision.
   Date of Publication: February 13, 2026
   Summary: Expects policy rate to end 2026 at 13%, consensus at 11.75%. February cut to 15.5% aligns with easing cycle. Multiple meetings remain for further adjustments.[9]
10. Title: Bank of Russia cuts key rate by to 15.5% per annum – TASS
    Description: TASS news agency report on official decision.
    Date of Publication: February 13, 2026
    Summary: Key rate lowered 0.5 pp to 15.5% at first 2026 meeting. Regulator will assess further cuts based on inflation dynamics. Confirms change from 16% level set in late 2025.[10]

The Central Bank of Russia’s key interest rate has already been changed from 16% as of February 13, 2026, when it was cut by 50 basis points to 15.50% per annum.[1][4][5] This resolves the question YES under the criteria, as the change occurred before the end of 2026 via the official resolution source.[1] The decision was unexpected, with markets anticipating a hold, driven by economic slowdown outweighing inflation risks and disinflation progress.[6][7]

Conclusion

The event qualifying for YES resolution has already occurred. The rate was changed from 16% to 15.5% on February 13, 2026, as confirmed by the official resolution source and multiple independent news agencies. There is essentially no meaningful uncertainty about this outcome.

The only remaining risk is some extremely unlikely scenario such as:

• All sources are systematically wrong (negligible probability)
• Some technical issue with the question’s resolution mechanics
• Misidentification of the official source

Probability: 99%

About The Author

Phillip Godzin

See https://www.linkedin.com/in/pgodzin/
Principal Software Engineer at JWP Connatix

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