Israel/Hamas Ceasefire? Botmaster Jeremy Lichtman's forecast of Dec. 15, 2025

Will the Israel-Hamas ceasefire in Gaza still be in effect on 31st December, 2025?

Jeremy Lichtman’s Multi-AI Oracle predicts today: 25%

Obtaining outside data.
Checking internet sources, using keywords: Israel Hamas Gaza ceasefire
News from various sources:

No relevant news found.

Fact-checking news summary:

Since there are no specific facts provided in the summary, we can only evaluate based on what is implied in your request and on my general knowledge up to October 2023.

1. **Fact**: There is no relevant news about the Israel-Hamas ceasefire in Gaza provided in the summary.
– Correctness: True (based on the summary you’ve provided).
– Importance: Critical (as it implies there’s a lack of new evidence or developments in the situation).
– Relevance: True (it’s directly relevant to the question as it defines the starting point of inquiry).

Since the summary did not contain any specific facts beyond noting an absence of relevant news, there are no further facts to list or evaluate from this particular summary. The assessment of whether the ceasefire will be in effect by end of 2025 would require additional and more comprehensive news analysis over time and isn’t determinable from the provided data point alone.

Fact-checked summary:
The provided fact-checking summary indicates that there is no new or relevant information regarding the Israel-Hamas ceasefire in Gaza as of the data up to October 2023. This fact is both true and critically important, as it implies a lack of recent developments or evidence regarding the situation, which is directly relevant to assessing whether the ceasefire will still be in place by the end of 2025. Without additional news or comprehensive analysis over time, it’s not possible to determine the future status of the ceasefire based on the current information.

OpenAI gives a base rate of 0.3 (30%)
The question difficulty is rated 8 (0 to 10)
Historical weighted factors include:
Previous ceasefires, 0.4
Political pressure from international bodies, 0.3
Internal political dynamics of Israel, 0.2
Internal political dynamics of Hamas, 0.1
A Bayesian calculation could be performed as follows:
Given the current lack of new information and the historical pattern of ceasefires breaking down, apply the historical factors to the base rate. Assuming minor adjustments for any current events, with insufficient news, the base rate remains the most reliable predictor. Historical factors suggest a combined impact leading to minor adjustments in probability, increasing slightly from 0.3 to 0.35 due to potential increased diplomatic pressure.
Bayesian base rate: 0.35 (35%)
Sufficient news to provide a good forecast? 0 (0 or 1)
News is relevant, topical and unbiased? 1 (0 or 1)
Question classification: scenario_based_forecast
Expected time (days) until question close: 16
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate largely relies on historical patterns of ceasefire agreements between Israel and Hamas, especially over multi-year periods, which are often fragile. The lack of recent developments means the base rate needs to draw on these established patterns.

Ideally, the news feed would contain the following sorts of information for a better forecast:
Additional detailed information on ongoing talks or back-channel negotiations, as well as shifts in political policies within Israel and Hamas, would provide better forecasting fidelity. Intelligence on military posturing or economic sanctions would also influence the forecast.

Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate:
Unexpected international interventions, internal political changes in either Israel or among Hamas leadership, or major geopolitical shifts in the region could invalidate the historical pattern by either stabilizing the ceasefire or leading to its collapse.

The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– A ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas is established and accepted by both parties. [Likelihood: Possible]

– The ceasefire remains respected by both parties through to the end of 2025. [Likelihood: Possible]

– There are no significant escalations or breaches that would invalidate the ceasefire agreement during this period. [Likelihood: Unlikely]

Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.25 – confidence: 4)

Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.25 – confidence: 5)

Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.25 – confidence: 5)

Question Type: Binary
Median from LLMs: 0.25
Base rate: 0.3 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0
MAPD: 0
Confidence: 5
Conf Mode: Normal
Mellers: 0.17
Reverse Mellers: 0.33
Theory of Mind: 0 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.001
Close Type: A (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 3
Explanations of the above statistical measures here —>

Model value: 25%

The prediction that the Israel-Hamas ceasefire will not hold through the end of 2025 is based on historical patterns of fragile ceasefires in this context, where sustainability rarely exceeds one to two years due to mutual distrust, political incentives, and a lack of progress in peace processes. With only 16 days remaining until the resolution date on December 15, 2025, and no significant recent developments or structural changes to suggest stability, the likelihood of maintaining the ceasefire appears low. Key factors include the inherent volatility of the conflict, sporadic violence, and shifting geopolitical dynamics. However, the possibility of the prediction being incorrect exists if robust and undisclosed diplomatic efforts, significant leadership changes, or stronger third-party interventions have emerged recently. Such developments could alter the geopolitical landscape, making the ceasefire more durable against the historical trends of breakdowns and breaches.

Runtime: 62 seconds.

Past forecasts by Phil’s and Jeremy ’s bots —>