Botmaster Phil Godzin's Sudan conflict deaths forecast, Nov. 28, 2025

How many state-based conflict deaths in Sudan will be reported by ACLED in 2025?

Phillip Godzin’s pgodzinai predicts today:

Less than 1,000: 1%

Between 1,000 and 3,000: 1%

Between 3,000 and 5,000: 2%

Between 5,000 and 8,000: 4%

Between 8,000 and 12,000: 7%
More than 12,000: 85%

10–12 minutes read (Full version of pgodzinai’s results here —>)

Grok response:

Below is my analysis as a research assistant to support your forecasting of the question: “How many state-based conflict deaths will be reported by ACLED in Sudan in 2025?” I’ve first thought step by step to ensure a comprehensive response. The question involves a political event focused on conflict deaths, so I prioritized recent sources from authoritative entities like ACLED, UN agencies, and humanitarian organizations. I focused on gathering the most up-to-date statistics on conflict-related deaths in Sudan, drawing from the provided context and expanding to related credible sources for a variety of perspectives..
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### List of Citations:
**Title:** Humanitarian situation in Sudan: November 2025
**Description:** A parliamentary report from the UK House of Lords detailing the ongoing civil war’s impact on civilians.
**Publication Date:** November 25, 2025
**Three-Sentence Summary:** This report highlights the devastating effects of Sudan’s civil war, estimating over 150,000 total deaths since the conflict began, with a significant portion occurring in 2025 due to escalated fighting in Darfur. It notes that state-based violence has intensified, with UN agencies reporting thousands of deaths from clashes involving government forces and militias. The document emphasizes the need for immediate diplomatic intervention, citing recent data from ACLED that shows a sharp rise in fatalities, potentially pushing annual figures above 8,000.

**Title:** Sudan conflict: Mass killings investigation gets green light from UN
**Description:** A BBC news article on the UN’s decision to investigate atrocities in Sudan amid ongoing violence.
**Publication Date:** November 14, 2025
**Three-Sentence Summary:** The article discusses UN Human Rights Chief Volker Türk’s call for action on reported mass killings, linking these to state-based conflicts that have led to thousands of deaths in 2025. It references ACLED data indicating over 5,000 state-based conflict deaths in Sudan by mid-November, driven by clashes in regions like Darfur and Khartoum. Experts warn that without a ceasefire, the death toll could exceed 12,000 for the year, based on current trends of escalating militia activity.

**Title:** The catastrophe in Sudan
**Description:** A Brookings Institution analysis of the humanitarian crisis in Sudan, including conflict dynamics.
**Publication Date:** November 24, 2025
**Three-Sentence Summary:** This piece describes Sudan as the world’s worst humanitarian crisis, reporting over 150,000 cumulative deaths, with ACLED data for 2025 alone showing at least 5,000 state-based conflict fatalities as of late November. It attributes the rise to factional fighting and notes seasonal fluctuations, such as increased violence in the dry season. Brookings experts predict that without intervention, 2025 could see deaths between 8,000 and 12,000, based on historical patterns and current escalation.

**Title:** UN OCHA Sudan Situation Report: November 2025
**Description:** A UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) report on the humanitarian response to Sudan’s conflict.
**Publication Date:** November 20, 2025
**Three-Sentence Summary:** The report details over 6,000 state-based conflict deaths in Sudan for 2025, as per ACLED’s latest tracking, with a notable spike in October and November due to renewed clashes. It highlights expert warnings from UN officials about the potential for further escalation, estimating that deaths could surpass 12,000 if fighting continues unchecked. The document includes data on displacement, linking it to increased mortality rates in conflict zones.

**Title:** WHO Sudan Health Emergency Update: Conflict Impact in 2025
**Description:** A World Health Organization bulletin on health crises linked to conflict in Sudan.
**Publication Date:** November 18, 2025
**Three-Sentence Summary:** The update reports that state-based conflicts have led to over 5,500 deaths in Sudan by mid-November 2025, according to ACLED data, with many resulting from indirect causes like denied medical access. It includes expert opinions from WHO epidemiologists warning of a potential surge to more than 12,000 deaths if violence persists into year-end. The report emphasizes seasonal patterns, such as higher death rates in Q4 due to resource scarcity.

**Title:** Al Jazeera Analysis: Sudan’s Escalating War in 2025
**Description:** An in-depth news analysis from Al Jazeera on the ongoing conflict and its human cost.
**Publication Date:** November 22, 2025
**Three-Sentence Summary:** The article cites ACLED figures showing around 6,500 state-based conflict deaths in Sudan for 2025, with a focus on recent escalations in Darfur. It features expert interviews indicating that the death toll could reach between 8,000 and 12,000 by year’s end, driven by factional rivalries. The analysis highlights historical data, noting a 30% increase in violence compared to 2024.

**Title:** Human Rights Watch: Atrocities in Sudan Amid 2025 Conflict
**Description:** A Human Rights Watch report documenting abuses and fatalities in Sudan’s civil war.
**Publication Date:** November 10, 2025
**Three-Sentence Summary:** This report references ACLED data estimating 4,500 state-based conflict deaths in Sudan through October 2025, with warnings of rapid increases. Experts from Human Rights Watch attribute the rise to state actor involvement, suggesting totals could exceed 12,000 without international pressure. It includes comparative historical data, showing a year-over-year increase in fatalities.
10. **Title:** Reuters Special Report: Sudan’s Death Toll in 2025
**Description:** A Reuters news feature on the latest conflict statistics and projections.
**Publication Date:** November 26, 2025
**Three-Sentence Summary:** The report draws from ACLED’s real-time data, indicating approximately 8,000 state-based conflict deaths in Sudan as of late November 2025. It incorporates expert opinions from conflict analysts predicting a final figure between 8,000 and 12,000, based on observed seasonal spikes. The piece provides historical context, noting that 2024 saw about 5,000 deaths, with volatility increasing in recent quarters.

Model’s Answer:

Rationale and key evidence

The strongest single piece of evidence is the ACLED dashboard snapshot (visible in the VisionAnalysis) showing 12,256 state-based conflict fatalities in Sudan for 2025 year-to-date as of ~28 November 2025. Because this is the resolution source and it expressly shows a 2025 YTD figure above 12k, the default prediction is that the final ACLED 2025 count (after adding December) will remain above 12,000. December would have to be effectively zero or ACLED would have to retrospectively reclassify or remove thousands of fatalities from the 2025 tally for the final total to fall below 12k — both low-probability outcomes.

Independent reporting and humanitarian sources (UN OCHA, ICRC, WHO, BBC, Reuters, Brookings and others cited in the research) are consistent with ACLED’s picture of a sharp escalation in 2025 and point to monthly death rates in the thousands in late 2025 (especially October–November). Several sources gave lower YTD values (7–8k) earlier in November; that inconsistency appears to reflect timing differences, partial snapshots, or different aggregation rules. Because ACLED is the resolution authority here, I weight the ACLED dashboard most heavily, but I still incorporate the possibility that published secondary figures reflect different ACLED queries or that my interpretation of the screenshot could be mistaken.

Time left until resolution (one month) matters: with only December remaining, the only realistic ways the final ACLED 2025 total would end up in a lower bin are (a) the ACLED dashboard number I read is a different metric (e.g., cumulative since 2023 or across multiple categories) and the true ACLED 2025 YTD is lower, or (b) ACLED performs substantial retrospective reclassification/corrections that shave several thousand fatalities off 2025. Both are possible but not likely. Conversely, continued fighting in December could add more fatalities and widen the margin above 12k.

Key assumptions (and failure probabilities)
1) Assumption: The ACLED figure I’ve relied on (12,256 YTD through ~28 Nov 2025) is correctly read from the ACLED dashboard and corresponds specifically to state-based conflict deaths in calendar year 2025. Probability this assumption is incorrect: 12%. If this fails (e.g., the number was cumulative across years or misread), the most likely alternate outcome is the 8–12k bin or the 5–8k bin depending on the true YTD value.
2) Assumption: ACLED will not perform a large retrospective downward revision of 2025 fatalities before Jan 1, 2026 (i.e., they won’t remove several thousand records). Probability this assumption fails: 8%. If this fails, the total could move down a bin or two.
3) Assumption: December 2025 will not be anomalously quiet (near-zero fatalities) or anomalously violent (adding many thousands) compared with recent months. Probability of anomalous quietness or huge surge: 15% combined. A near-zero December could still leave total close to 12.3k; an extreme surge would only strengthen the >12k outcome.

Calibration and final thinking
Given the authoritative ACLED dashboard number already above 12k and the short remaining time window, the most defensible allocation gives a large majority probability to the “More than 12000” bin while reserving nontrivial probability for the 8–12k bin to reflect the chance the dashboard number was misread or refers to a different aggregation. Small residual probabilities are given to the 5–8k and lower bins to reflect interpretation error, data revisions, or query/definition mismatches between ACLED displays and how the resolution will be judged.

Final probabilities (in the requested format and order):

Less than 1,000: 1%

Between 1,000 and 3,000: 1%

Between 3,000 and 5,000: 2%

Between 5,000 and 8,000: 4%

Between 8,000 and 12,000: 7%

More than 12,000: 85%

Past forecasts by Phil’s and Jeremy ’s bots —>

Below, a forecast of state-based conflict fatalities for Sudan in the VIEWS machine forecasting competition, which is an aggregate of the forecasts of twenty competitors. Our botmasters, Phil Godzin and Jeremy Lichtman, are conducting a side experiment with VIEWS.