Jeremy Lichtman’s Multi-AI Oracle, comprising Perplexity, Claude, Mistral, and OpenAI
Dec: 31, 2025: Will the Haven-1 space habitat be launched in 2026? Jeremy Lichtman’s Multi-AI Oracle predicted: 75%
Dec. 30, 2025: Will the Federal Republic of Germany announce that it is in an economic recession by the end of 2026? Jeremy Lichtman’s Multi-AI Oracle predicted: 25%
Dec. 29, 2025: Will the Israel-Hamas ceasefire in Gaza still be in effect on 31st December, 2025? Jeremy Lichtman’s Multi-AI Oracle predicted: 15%
Dec. 26, 2025: How many state-based conflict deaths in Sudan will be reported by ACLED for 2025? Jeremy Lichtman’s Multi-AI Oracle predicted:
Less than 1,000: 1%
Between 1,000 and 3,000: 5%
Between 3,000 and 5,000: 9%
Between 5,000 and 8,000: 14%
Between 8,000 and 12,000: 24%
More than 12,000: 47%
Dec. 24, 2025: Will the Haven-1 space habitat be launched in 2026? Jeremy Lichtman’s Multi-AI Oracle predicted: 75%
Dec. 23, 2025: Will the Federal Republic of Germany announce that it is in an economic recession by the end of 2026? Jeremy Lichtman’s Multi-AI Oracle predicted: 25%
Dec. 22, 2025: Will the Israel-Hamas ceasefire in Gaza still be in effect on 31st December, 2025? Jeremy Lichtman’s Multi-AI Oracle predicted: 8%
Dec.19, 2025: How many state-based conflict deaths in Sudan will be reported by ACLED for 2025?
Jeremy Lichtman’s Multi-AI Oracle predicted:
Less than 1,000: 1%
Between 1,000 and 3,000: 5%
Between 3,000 and 5,000: 12%
Between 5,000 and 8,000: 25%
Between 8,000 and 12,000: 30%
More than 12,000: 27%
Dec. 18, 2025: Will the US officially announce completion of any military strike against Venezuela before the end of 2025? Jeremy Lichtman’s Multi-AI Oracle predicted: 2%.
Details here —>
Dec. 17, 2025: Will the Haven-1 space habitat be launched in 2026? Jeremy Lichtman’s Multi-AI Oracle predicted: 72%
Dec. 16, 2025: Will the Federal Republic of Germany announce that it is in an economic recession by the end of 2026? Jeremy Lichtman’s Multi-AI Oracle predicted: 45%
Details here —>Dec. 15, 2025: Will the Israel-Hamas ceasefire in Gaza still be in effect on 31st December, 2025? Jeremy Lichtman’s Multi-AI Oracle predicted: 25%
Dec. 12, 2025: How many state-based conflict deaths in Sudan will be reported by ACLED for 2025?
Jeremy Lichtman’s Multi-AI Oracle predicted:
Less than 1,000: 1%
Between 1,000 and 3,000: 2%
Between 3,000 and 5,000: 2%
Between 5,000 and 8,000: 16%
Between 8,000 and 12,000: 64%
More than 12,000: 15%
Dec. 10, 2025: Will the Haven-1 space habitat be launched in 2026? Jeremy Lichtman’s Multi-AI Oracle predicted: 72%
Dec.9, 2025: Will the Federal Republic of Germany announce that it is in an economic recession by the end of 2026? Jeremy Lichtman’s Multi-AI Oracle predicted: 65%
Dec. 8, 2025: Will the Israel-Hamas ceasefire in Gaza still be in effect on 31st December, 2025?
Jeremy Lichtman’s Multi-AI Oracle predicted: 35%
Dec. 5, 2025: How many state-based conflict deaths in Sudan will be reported by ACLED for 2025? Jeremy Lichtman’s Multi-AI Oracle predicted:
Less than 1000: 1%
Between 1,000 and 3,000: 3%
Between 3,000 and 5,000: 8%
Between 5,000 and 8,000: 15%
Between 8,000 and 12,000: 25%
More than 12,000: 48%
Dec. 4, 2025: Will the US officially announce completion of any military strike against Venezuela before the end of 2025? Jeremy Lichtman’s Multi-AI Oracle predicted: 2%
Dec. 3, 2025: Will the Haven-1 space habitat be launched in 2026? Jeremy Lichtman’s Multi-AI Oracle predicted: 72%
Dec. 2, 2025: Will the Federal Republic of Germany announce that it is in an economic recession by the end of 2026? Jeremy Lichtman’s Multi-AI Oracle predicted: 25%
Dec. 1, 2025: Will the Israel-Hamas ceasefire in Gaza still be in effect on 31st December, 2025? Jeremy Lichtman’s Multi-AI Oracle predicted: 35%
Details here—>
Nov. 28, 2025: How many state-based conflict deaths in Sudan will be reported by ACLED for 2025? Jeremy Lichtman’s Multi-AI Oracle predicted:
Less than 1,000: 1%
Between 1,000 and 3,000: 2%
Between 3,000 and 5,000: 5%
Between 5,000 and 8,000: 12%
Between 8,000 and 12,000: 25%
More than 12,000: 55%
Derails here—>
Nov. 27, 2025: Will the US officially announce completion of any military strike against Venezuela before the end of 2025? Jeremy Lichtman’s Multi-AI Oracle predicted: 25%
Nov. 26, 2026: Will the Haven-1 space habitat be launched in 2026? Jeremy Lichtman’s Multi-AI Oracle predicted: 75%
Below, the final Metaculus AI Benchmark Tournament Q2 Leaderboard. Phillip Godzin’s pgozinai, highlighted in light orange, was #3! Colors code for previous holders of first place, excepting jbot, in yellow, belonging to Jeremy Lichtman.
Phillip Godzin’s pgodzinai, comprising Perplexity, Grok, GPT, Anthropic, and Gemini
Jan. 1, 2026: Will the Federal Republic of Germany announce that it is in an economic recession by 31st December, 2026? Phillip Godzin’s pgodzinai predicted: 58%
Dec: 31, 2025: Will the Israel-Hamas ceasefire in Gaza still be in effect on 31st December, 2025? Phillip Godzin’s pgodzinai predicted: 88%
Dec. 30, 2025: Will the Haven-1 space habitat be launched in 2026? Phillip Godzin’s pgodzinai predicted: 52%
Dec. 29, 2025: Will the US officially announce completion of any military strike against Venezuela before the end of 2025?
Phillip Godzin’s pgodzinai predicted: 3%
Dec. 26, 2025: How many state-based conflict deaths in Sudan will be reported by ACLED in 2025? Phillip Godzin’s pgodzinai predicted:
Less than 1,000: 1%
Between 1,000 and 3,000: 2%
Between 3,000 and 5,000: 5%
Between 5,000 and 8,000: 20%
Between 8,000 and 12,000: 55%
More than 12,000: 17%
Dec. 25. 2025: Will the Federal Republic of Germany announce that it is in an economic recession by 31st December, 2026?
Phillip Godzin’s pgodzinai predicted: 28%
Dec. 24, 2025: Will the Israel-Hamas ceasefire in Gaza still be in effect on 31st December, 2025? Phillip Godzin’s pgodzinai predicted: 65%
Dec. 23, 2025: Will the Haven-1 space habitat be launched in 2026? Phillip Godzin’s pgodzinai predicted: 38%
Dec. 22, 2025: Will the US officially announce completion of any military strike against Venezuela before the end of 2025? Phillip Godzin’s pgodzinai predicted: 6%
Dec.19, 2025: How many state-based conflict deaths in Sudan will be reported by ACLED in 2025? Phillip Godzin’s pgodzinai predicted:
Less than 1,000: 1%
Between 1,000 and 3,000: 1%
Between 3,000 and 5,000: 3%
Between 5,000 and 8,000: 15%
Between 8,000 and 12,000: 70%
More than 12,000: 10%
Dec. 18, 2025: Will the Federal Republic of Germany announce that it is in an economic recession by 31st December, 2026? Phillip Godzin’s pgodzinai predicted: 22%.
Dec. 17, 2025:Will the Israel-Hamas ceasefire in Gaza still be in effect on 31st December, 2025? Phillip Godzin’s pgodzinai predicted: 65%
Dec. 16, 2025: Will the Haven-1 space habitat be launched in 2026? Phillip Godzin’s pgodzinai predicted: 40%.
Dec. 15, 2025: Will the US officially announce completion of any military strike against Venezuela before the end of 2025? Phillip Godzin’s pgodzinai predicted: 15%
Details here —>
Dec. 12, 2025: How many state-based conflict deaths in Sudan will be reported by ACLED in 2025? Phillip Godzin’s pgodzinai predicted:
Less than 1,000: 1%
Between 1,000 and 3,000: 1%
Between 3,000 and 5,000: 1%
Between 5,000 and 8,000: 3%
Between 8,000 and 12,000: 15%
More than 12,000: 79%
Dec. 11, 2025: Will the Federal Republic of Germany announce that it is in an economic recession by 31st December, 2026? Phillip Godzin’s pgodzinai predicted: 20%
Dec. 10, 2025: Will the Israel-Hamas ceasefire in Gaza still be in effect on 31st December, 2025? Phillip Godzin’s pgodzinai predicted: 72%
Dec.9, 2025: Will the Haven-1 space habitat be launched in 2026? Phillip Godzin’s pgodzinai predicted: 28%
Dec. 8, 2025: Will the US officially announce completion of any military strike against Venezuela before the end of 2025? Phillip Godzin’s pgodzinai predicted: 10%
Dec. 5, 2025: How many state-based conflict deaths in Sudan will be reported by ACLED in 2025?
Phillip Godzin’s pgodzinai predicted:
Less than 1,000: 0%
Between 1,000 and 3,000: 0%
Between 3,000 and 5,000: 1%
Between 5,000 and 8,000: 2%
Between 8,000 and 12,000: 7%
More than 12,000: 90%
Dec. 4, 2025: Will the Federal Republic of Germany announce that it is in an economic recession by 31st December, 2026? Phillip Godzin’s pgodzinai predicted: 30%
Dec. 3, 2025: Will the Israel-Hamas ceasefire in Gaza still be in effect on 31st December, 2025? Phillip Godzin’s pgodzinai predicted: 35%
Dec. 2, 2025: Will the Haven-1 space habitat be launched in 2026? Phillip Godzin’s pgodzinai predicted: 48%
Dec. 1, 2025: Will the US officially announce completion of any military strike against Venezuela before the end of 2025? Phillip Godzin’s pgodzinai predicted: 10%
Nov. 28, 2025: How many state-based conflict deaths in Sudan will be reported by ACLED in 2025? Phillip Godzin’s pgodzinai predicted:
Less than 1,000: 1%
Between 1,000 and 3,000: 1%
Between 3,000 and 5,000: 2%
Between 5,000 and 8,000: 4%
Between 8,000 and 12,000: 7%
More than 12,000: 85%
Links to all of both our human and GenAI bot forecasts here —>
News Briefs
All our AI News Briefs. brought to us by David Isenberg every few days —>
Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament
Launched Sept. 1, 2025, it pits bots against “Community” humans and Pro forecasters. Who will win this time, humans or a bot?
Metaculus’s Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament is over. Phil’s pgodzinai was the third place winning bot, but Pro Forecasters beat all the bots.
Phil Godzin has joined Jeremy in our side competition with the VIEWS competition. He also ran his pgodzinai during the entire Metaculus AI Benchmark Competition, In the final quarter of 2024, Phil’s bot won third place, beating the ordinary human forecasters of the Metaculus Community. Overall, according to Carolyn‘s analysis, Phil’s pgodzinai was the bot that won the most points combined across the entire competition. See the full Q2 leaderboard over time at the foot of this page, or just the final leaderboard here —>
Results Analyzed and Reported from Metaculus’ Q1 AI Benchmark Tournament
Humans beat the bots again, pgodzinai came in #9. Final leaderboard here —>
All Our Past AI Bot Forecasts and Humans vs Bots Forecasts —>
The Optimizer Did It: science fiction by Carolyn Meinel
More on Bestworldbot’s fate:
Our next step with bestworldbot has been using itsfor our bot or not projectClick here for our preliminary results.
We also have integrative complexity results on forecasting rationales written by a team of college graduates (Amazon Mturk prime workers) in the 2019 Hybrid Forecasting
Competition. These results substantiated our hypothesis that they used true reasoning in the rationales they wrote for that competition.
Metaculus Q4 2024 Results: Pgodzinai Beat All Bots and Human Community Forecasters; Human Pros Barely Edged Win.
Human pro forecasters beat the bots! But only just barely. Phil’s pgodzinai was the champion bot. Click here to see his winning performance on its leaderbpoard over tine.
Retired: At the end of Q3 of 2024, Jeremy’s bestworldbot finished #53 out of 55 competitors. That was down from #17 on Sept. 10 and having been #2 for twelve days. A likely explanation for bestworldbot’s collapse on the leaderboard is that in early September we began extremizing its forecasts, meaning that below 50%, we would decrease probabilities and above, increase. This was according to a formula (Mellers) proven to work well on humans. Well, we discovered that bestworldbot isn’t like an average human because extremizing made it worse.
Question retired: “Given the agreement of the US International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) to salary increases, both union and the port returned to the bargaining table on Jan. 15, 2025 to discuss automation and other issues. What’s the probability of a strike in Q1 2025.” Result: No strike with the parties making a final agreement. Botmaster Jeremy and Carolyn Meinel both kept on saying the Multi-AI Oracle was too high. So we humans won.
Se all these forecasts here —->
Pictured above, leaderboard over time, the Metaculus Q2 2025 AI Benchmark Competition.
Bots that had been in first place at times in that or Q4, 2024, are color coded, excepting jbot, in yellow.
