Insignia for the Central Bank of Russia
This is the full version of pigodzin’s rationale. Condensed version here.
Forecast of Jan. 16, 2026: Russia just dropped it to 15.5%, despite experts saying it wouldn’t change.
Perplexity response:
# Key Information for Forecasting
Based on the search results provided, I can present the following relevant citations:
Citation Summary Table
| # | Title | Publication Date | Summary |
|---|---|---|---|
| [1] | Russian Central Bank Cuts Key Rate to 15.5%, Signals More Cuts to Come | Feb 13, 2026 | The Bank of Russia cut its key rate by 50 basis points to 15.5% on Friday, signaling further rate cuts to come. The baseline scenario assumes an average key rate of 13.5-14.5% for 2026. Only 8 of 24 surveyed analysts had predicted this 50 basis point cut. |
| [2] | Russian central bank cuts key rate by 50 basis points to 15.5% | Feb 13, 2026 (Reuters) | This cut was a “dovish surprise” coming just 10 days after President Putin urged officials to restore economic growth. The central bank stated it will assess further rate cuts at upcoming meetings depending on inflation slowdown. Economist Nicholas Farr forecasts rates ending the year at 13%. |
| [3] | Russian central bank lowers key interest rate to 15.5 pct | Feb 13, 2026 (Xinhua) | The Bank of Russia cut its key rate by 50 basis points to 15.5% in its sixth consecutive rate cut. The baseline scenario envisions an average key rate of 13.5-14.5% for 2026 at upcoming board meetings. |
| [4] | Why the Bank of Russia Lowered Key Interest Rate | Feb 13, 2026 (Caspian Post) | The central bank narrowed its 2026 average key rate forecast corridor to 13.5-14.5% (from the previous 13-15%) and revised 2027 projections upward to 8-9%. The bank also downwardly revised oil price forecasts from $55 to $45 per barrel for 2026. |
| [5] | Russia Unexpectedly Cuts Interest Rate | Feb 13, 2026 (Trading Economics) | The Bank of Russia cut its benchmark rate by 50bps to 15.5%, contrasting with the median market survey expectation of a hold, attributing recent price pressures to one-off events. |
| [6] | Russian Central Bank Trims Key Rate, Sees a More Balanced Economy Ahead | Feb 13, 2026 (Moscow Times) | The central bank lowered its key rate to 15.5% from 16%, continuing a streak of five cuts from last year and keeping the door open for further reductions. Chief economist Sofia Donets said this was the strongest signal for easing since 2023. |
Current Status and Key Developments
The question has already been resolved as “Yes.” On February 13, 2026, the Central Bank of Russia changed its key interest rate from 16% to 15.5%—a reduction of 50 basis points[1][2][3]. This occurred before the end of 2026, meeting the resolution criteria.
Forward Guidance and Expected Rate Path:
The central bank signaled that further rate cuts are likely to come in 2026[1][2]. The baseline scenario projects an average key rate in the range of 13.5-14.5% for 2026[1][3][4], suggesting multiple additional cuts from the current 15.5% level. Economist Nicholas Farr at Capital Economics maintains a forecast of rates ending 2026 at 13%[2].
Context for the Cut:
The 50 basis point cut was described as a “dovish surprise” by analysts, as only 8 of 24 surveyed analysts had predicted this magnitude[1][2]. The decision came just 10 days after President Vladimir Putin directed officials to restore economic growth and not simply monitor prices[2].
Russia’s economy slowed sharply in 2025 after the central bank raised rates to a two-decade high of 21% in September 2024[6]. The government forecasts 2026 growth of 1.3% (after 1.0% in 2025), while the central bank projects 0.5-1.5% growth[1][2].
Inflation Considerations:
While the central bank cited temporary price pressures from a January VAT increase as one-off factors, inflation stood at 6.5% on an annual basis as of early February 2026, above the central bank’s target of 4%[1][2]. However, the bank expects annual inflation to decline to 4.5-5.5% in 2026, with sustainable inflation approaching the 4% target in the second half of the year[1][4].
Additional Headwinds:
The central bank revised downward its oil price forecast for 2026 from $55 to $45 per barrel[4], reflecting weaker global demand expectations. It also noted that U.S. trade disputes and low oil prices could have pro-inflationary effects through the ruble exchange rate[2].
Grok response:
- Title: Bank of Russia cuts the key rate by 50 bp to 15.50% p.a. | Bank of Russia
Description: Official page listing key rate press releases from the Central Bank of Russia.
Date of Publication: February 13, 2026
Summary: The Bank of Russia announced on February 13, 2026, that it cut the key rate from 16% to 15.50% per annum. The decision reflects the economy returning to balanced growth and ongoing disinflation after one-off factors. The bank will assess further cuts at upcoming meetings, with the next on March 20, 2026.[1] - Title: Calendar of key rate decisions | Bank of Russia
Description: Official Bank of Russia calendar for monetary policy meetings in 2026.
Date of Publication: Accessed February 2026 (ongoing calendar)
Summary: The schedule lists key rate decision meetings including February 13 (already held), February 26, March 20, April 24, and others through the year. This provides opportunities for further rate changes before end-2026. No changes noted between December 2025 and February 13, 2026.[2] - Title: Monetary policy decisions | Bank of Russia
Description: Bank of Russia page archiving recent key rate decisions.
Date of Publication: February 13, 2026 (latest entry)
Summary: On February 13, 2026, key rate cut by 50 bp to 15.50% p.a. Previous decision on December 19, 2025, cut by 50 bp to 16%. This confirms the rate was held at 16% until the February meeting.[3] - Title: Russia’s central bank signals rates to come down further … – Reuters
Description: Reuters article on the latest Bank of Russia rate decision.
Date of Publication: February 13, 2026
Summary: Bank of Russia cut key rate by 50 bps to 15.5% on February 13, 2026, unexpectedly as markets expected a hold. The bank signaled potential further cuts amid slowing growth. 2026 GDP growth forecast unchanged at 0.5%-1.5%.[4] - Title: Russia Interest Rate – Trading Economics
Description: Trading Economics tracker for Russia’s benchmark interest rate.
Date of Publication: February 13, 2026 (updated)
Summary: Bank of Russia cut rate to 15.5% on February 13, 2026, against market expectation of hold. Historical data shows peak at 21% earlier, cut to 16% in December 2025. Forward expectations point to further easing.[5] - Title: Russian Central Bank Trims Key Rate, Sees a More Balanced … – The Moscow Times
Description: Coverage of the February rate decision by Moscow Times.
Date of Publication: February 13, 2026
Summary: Central Bank lowered key rate from 16% to 15.5% on first 2026 meeting. Decision supports economy amid disinflation. Bank narrowed 2026 average key rate forecast to 13.5%-14.5% from prior 13%-15%.[6] - Title: Russia Cuts Rate as Slowing Economy Outweighs Inflation Risk – Bloomberg
Description: Bloomberg analysis of the rate cut and economic context.
Date of Publication: February 13, 2026
Summary: Benchmark rate cut 50 bps to 15.5% on February 13. Central bank updated average key rate forecast for 2026 to 13.5%-14.5%. Growth concerns trump inflation risks in decision.[7] - Title: Central Bank of Russia’s signal not a commitment, but there is now … – Interfax
Description: Interfax report on post-decision forecasts.
Date of Publication: February 13, 2026
Summary: CBR narrowed 2026 average key rate forecast to 13.5%-14.5%. This implies multiple cuts expected throughout 2026. Economy shows balanced growth path per bank statement.[8] - Title: Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.) – Capital Economics
Description: Capital Economics preview and post-analysis of February decision.
Date of Publication: February 13, 2026
Summary: Expects policy rate to end 2026 at 13%, consensus at 11.75%. February cut to 15.5% aligns with easing cycle. Multiple meetings remain for further adjustments.[9] - Title: Bank of Russia cuts key rate by to 15.5% per annum – TASS
Description: TASS news agency report on official decision.
Date of Publication: February 13, 2026
Summary: Key rate lowered 0.5 pp to 15.5% at first 2026 meeting. Regulator will assess further cuts based on inflation dynamics. Confirms change from 16% level set in late 2025.[10]
The Central Bank of Russia’s key interest rate has already been changed from 16% as of February 13, 2026, when it was cut by 50 basis points to 15.50% per annum.[1][4][5] This resolves the question YES under the criteria, as the change occurred before the end of 2026 via the official resolution source.[1] The decision was unexpected, with markets anticipating a hold, driven by economic slowdown outweighing inflation risks and disinflation progress.[6][7]
Prior to this, the rate was held at 16% following the December 19, 2025 cut from 21% (background notes December 15, minor date variance).[3] The bank’s statement notes the economy returning to balanced growth (projected 0.5-1.5% GDP for 2026) and fading one-off inflation factors.[1] It narrowed its 2026 average key rate forecast to 13.5%-14.5% (from 13%-15%), signaling expectations of further easing.[8][7]
Upcoming meetings per official calendar include February 26, March 20, April 24, May 7 (extraordinary?), June 19, and more through December, providing multiple opportunities for additional changes.[2] Governor Nabiullina’s referenced comments emphasize assessing sustainability of inflation slowdown before further cuts.[1] Analyst views like Capital Economics project end-2026 rate at 13%, with consensus lower at 11.75%, indicating market anticipation of continued downward trajectory.[9]
No data on volatility or historical highs/lows specifically for the key rate beyond recent peaks at 21% in 2025 and progressive cuts. All sources confirm the current rate at 15.5% as of February 13, 2026, with no interim changes reported since.[5]
Extracted resolution criteria links:
[‘https://www.cbr.ru/eng/press/keypr/’]
Extracted resolution criteria links:
[]
Claude Vision analysis response:
I don’t see any image attached to this message. Could you please share the image or page content you’d like me to analyze for information about Russia’s key interest rate?
To properly help you extract relevant data for this forecasting question, I would need to see the actual content from the Central Bank of Russia’s website or any other relevant source material you’re referencing.
Anthropic Binary response:
Analysis: Russia Key Interest Rate Change from 16%
Current Status Assessment
Based on the research provided, this question appears to have already resolved. Multiple authoritative sources confirm that on February 13, 2026 (three days before today), the Central Bank of Russia cut its key interest rate from 16% to 15.5%:
- Official Resolution Source (cbr.ru/eng/press/keypr/): “Bank of Russia cuts the key rate by 50 bp to 15.50% p.a.” – February 13, 2026
- Reuters: “Russian central bank cuts key rate by 50 basis points to 15.5%”
- Trading Economics: “Bank of Russia cut rate to 15.5% on February 13, 2026”
- TASS: “Key rate lowered 0.5 pp to 15.5% at first 2026 meeting”
- Moscow Times: “Central Bank lowered key rate from 16% to 15.5%”
Resolution Criteria Verification
The resolution criteria state: “Resolves Yes if the Central Bank of Russia changes the key rate from 16% at any point before the end of 2026.”
The rate was changed from 16% → 15.5% on February 13, 2026. This satisfies the resolution criteria completely.
Critical Assumptions and Risk Assessment
Assumption 1: Research accuracy
- Probability of error: ~0.5%
- Multiple independent sources (Reuters, TASS, official CBR page, Trading Economics, Bloomberg, Moscow Times) all report the same information with consistent details
- The official resolution source is explicitly cited as confirming this
Assumption 2: Resolution criteria interpretation
- Probability of different interpretation: ~0.1%
- The criteria are unambiguous: “changes the key rate from 16%” – the rate was indeed changed from 16% to 15.5%
Assumption 3: Date consistency
- Probability of date error: ~0.2%
- All sources report Feb 13, 2026; today is Feb 16, 2026; resolution date is Dec 31, 2026
- The event occurred after the question start and before resolution date
Conclusion
The event qualifying for YES resolution has already occurred. The rate was changed from 16% to 15.5% on February 13, 2026, as confirmed by the official resolution source and multiple independent news agencies. There is essentially no meaningful uncertainty about this outcome.
The only remaining risk is some extremely unlikely scenario such as:
- All sources are systematically wrong (negligible probability)
- Some technical issue with the question’s resolution mechanics
- Misidentification of the official source
Probability: 99%
The extracted probability is: 99%
Anthropic Binary response:
Analysis: Russia Interest Rate Change from 16%
Event Status
Based on multiple authoritative sources, the resolution event has already occurred. On February 13, 2026, the Central Bank of Russia cut its key rate from 16% to 15.5% – a reduction of 50 basis points.
Evidence Assessment
Primary Sources Confirming the Rate Change:
- Official CBR source (cbr.ru/eng/press/keypr/) – Bank of Russia announced on February 13, 2026, cutting rate to 15.50%
- Reuters – Confirmed 50 bps cut to 15.5%
- Trading Economics – Current rate listed as 15.5%
- Bloomberg – Benchmark rate cut to 15.5%
- TASS – Key rate lowered to 15.5%
- Moscow Times – Confirmed cut from 16% to 15.5%
Source Reliability Assessment
- The resolution source is the official Central Bank of Russia website
- Multiple independent news agencies confirm the same information
- The research includes data from just 3 days ago (February 13, 2026)
- No conflicting information exists
Resolution Criteria Check
The resolution criteria states: “Resolves Yes if the Central Bank of Russia changes the key rate from 16% at any point before the end of 2026.”
✓ The rate was changed from 16%
✓ It was changed to 15.5% (a 50 basis point cut)
✓ This occurred on February 13, 2026 (before end of 2026)
Critical Assumptions and Potential Failure Points
- Research accuracy assumption: The research cites direct quotes from the official CBR website and multiple corroborating sources. Probability of research error: <1%
- Resolution interpretation assumption: The criteria clearly states “changes the key rate from 16% at any point before the end of 2026” – no ambiguity exists. Probability of interpretation error: <0.5%
- Source verification assumption: The official CBR source is cited as the resolution source, and research confirms it shows the February 13 cut. Probability of source mismatch: <0.5%
Forward Guidance (Additional Context)
The central bank has also signaled further rate cuts are expected:
- 2026 average key rate forecast: 13.5-14.5%
- Analysts expect rates ending 2026 at 13%
- Multiple upcoming meetings scheduled for potential adjustments
This additional information, while not strictly necessary for resolution (since the event has already occurred), reinforces that monetary policy changes from the 16% level have definitively taken place.
Conclusion
The event triggering a “Yes” resolution has already occurred with overwhelming confirmation from the resolution source and multiple authoritative backup sources. The only remaining uncertainty is minimal (data entry errors, unforeseen technicalities, etc.).
Probability: 99%
The extracted probability is: 99%
Anthropic Binary response:
Analysis of Russia Key Interest Rate Change Question
Critical Finding: Event Already Occurred
Based on the research provided, this question has effectively already been resolved. Let me walk through the key evidence:
Confirmed Facts:
- Russia’s key interest rate was at 16% as of December 19, 2025 (per background)
- On February 13, 2026 (3 days before “today”), the Central Bank of Russia cut the key rate by 50 basis points from 16% to 15.5%
- This is confirmed by multiple authoritative sources including:
- The official resolution source (cbr.ru/eng/press/keypr/)
- Reuters
- Bloomberg
- TASS
- Moscow Times
- Trading Economics
- Interfax
Resolution Criteria Assessment
The resolution criteria states: “Resolves Yes if the Central Bank of Russia changes the key rate from 16% at any point before the end of 2026.”
The rate change from 16% to 15.5% on February 13, 2026:
- ✓ Changed the rate from 16%
- ✓ Occurred before the end of 2026
- ✓ Confirmed by the official resolution source
Potential Uncertainties
Assumption 1: The “event must happen after today” boilerplate is superseded by specific resolution criteria
- Probability of this being wrong: ~2%
- The specific resolution criteria says “at any point before end of 2026” without date restrictions
Assumption 2: The research sources accurately report the rate change
- Probability of this being wrong: ~0.5%
- Multiple independent sources including the official CBR website confirm the change
Assumption 3: No reversal or correction of the rate decision occurs that would invalidate sources
- Probability of this being wrong: <0.5%
- Central banks don’t typically reverse rate decisions once announced
Forward Guidance Context
Even setting aside that the event has already occurred, the CBR has strongly signaled continued easing:
- 2026 average key rate forecast narrowed to 13.5-14.5%
- Analysts expect rates to fall to 11.75-13% by end of 2026
- Multiple rate decision meetings scheduled throughout 2026
Conclusion
The rate has already changed from 16% to 15.5% on February 13, 2026, satisfying the resolution criteria. The only remaining uncertainty involves potential technical/platform interpretations, which I estimate at ~1%.
Probability: 99%
The extracted probability is: 99%
Gemini Binary response:
This is a forecast on whether the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) will change its key interest rate from 16% between February 16, 2026, and December 31, 2026.
Reasoning
Analysis of the Resolution Criteria and Recent Events
The most critical factors in this forecast are the precise wording of the resolution criteria and a key event that occurred just prior to the forecast date. Research confirms that on February 13, 2026, the Bank of Russia cut its key rate by 50 basis points from 16% to 15.5%. However, the question specifies that “The event must happen after today (2026-02-16) and before the resolution date.” Since the change from 16% to 15.5% occurred on February 13, it does not satisfy the temporal constraint of happening after February 16. Therefore, this recent rate cut does not resolve the question
The extracted probability is: 5%
GPT Binary response:
The Bank of Russia has already changed its key rate away from 16% within the question’s window: the official CBR key-rate press release dated Feb 13, 2026 states the key rate was cut from 16.00% to 15.50% (resolution source: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/press/keypr/). Under the stated ResolutionCriteria (“changes the key rate from 16% at any point before the end of 2026”), that is sufficient for a Yes resolution.
So the forecast is dominated by “already happened” logic; the remaining uncertainty is almost entirely about potential interpretation/administrative mismatches (e.g., if a platform operator intended “after today” to override the written ResolutionCriteria) rather than economic uncertainty.
Key assumptions whose failure would most change the forecast:
1) ResolutionCriteria is applied as written (i.e., a change on Feb 13, 2026 counts). Failure probability: 7%.
2) The CBR page/press release is correctly interpreted and is the definitive resolution source (not a translation artifact, mirrored page issue, etc.). Failure probability: 2%.
3) No clerical correction reverses/invalidates the Feb 13 entry (e.g., mistaken posting). Failure probability: 1%.
Given the official source and multiple corroborating reports, I assign a very high probability the question resolves Yes.
Probability: 98%
The extracted probability is: 98%
GPT Binary response:
The resolution criterion is straightforward: it resolves Yes if the Bank of Russia changes the key rate from 16% at any point before end-2026, using the Bank of Russia’s key rate press releases page as the source.
Per the Bank of Russia press release archive (and multiple independent media reports), the key rate was cut from 16.00% to 15.50% on February 13, 2026—i.e., already a change away from 16% well before the 2026-12-31 resolution date. That means the event condition has (in the real world, and per the specified source) already occurred, so the forecast should be extremely close to certain.
The only meaningful uncertainty is procedural/interpretive rather than economic:
- If the tournament/platform enforces an additional constraint that the change must occur after the forecast “today” date (2026-02-16), then the already-occurred change might be treated as non-qualifying. However, that constraint is not present in the stated ResolutionCriteria, which says “at any point before the end of 2026.”
- If the Bank of Russia page were to be corrected/altered in a way that removed/invalidated the Feb 13 change (highly unlikely).
- If “from 16%” were interpreted to mean “starting at 16% on 2026-02-16 and then changing,” which conflicts with the resolution-source-based criterion and the current rate level (15.5%).
Timeframe cross-checks (given what’s already published):
- By end of March 2026: effectively already Yes (≈99%).
- By end of 2026: effectively already Yes (≈99%).
Key assumptions whose failure would flip the outcome:
1) The Bank of Russia press-release page continues to show the Feb 13, 2026 move from 16% to 15.5% (failure probability ~1–2%).
2) The resolver follows the written ResolutionCriteria rather than an additional “must happen after today” constraint (failure probability ~5–10%).
3) No disqualifying technicality (e.g., the question being voided/treated as invalid due to having already occurred) (failure probability ~2–5%).
Netting these, I still put the probability extremely high, but not absolute.
Probability: 97%
The extracted probability is: 97%
GPT Binary response:
The resolution criteria are straightforward: resolve Yes if the Bank of Russia changes the key rate from 16% at any point before end-2026, with the resolution source being the Bank of Russia’s key rate press release archive.
As of the best available, highly authoritative evidence (the Bank of Russia press release page and multiple independent newswires), the key rate was cut from 16.0% to 15.5% on February 13, 2026. That is a “change from 16%” and it occurred well before 2026-12-31. So, under the stated resolution criteria, this question is effectively already decided Yes.
The only meaningful residual uncertainty is not about Russian monetary policy, but about meta/administrative interpretation:
- The prompt also says: “The event must happen after today” (today is 2026-02-16). If a judge applied that extra constraint strictly, then the Feb 13 change would be excluded, and the event might be treated as not-yet-happened. However, this conflicts with the explicit ResolutionCriteria, which does not impose an “after today” condition; it just says “at any point before the end of 2026.” In forecasting platforms, the written resolution criteria usually dominate.
- Even if the “after today” constraint were enforced, the event “change from 16%” would then require Russia to return to 16% and subsequently change away again, which is possible but not the natural reading of “change … from 16%” (it’s generally meant as the first departure from 16).
Given the official source already records the change, I treat this as ~certain Yes.
Cross-check / time-window probabilities (given what’s already on the official page):
- By end of March 2026: 99%
- By end of June 2026: 99%
- By end of 2026: 99%
Key assumptions whose failure would change the outcome most:
1) Resolution is based on the stated ResolutionCriteria (not the “after today” line).
Probability this assumption is wrong: 5%
2) The Bank of Russia page remains the authoritative record and continues to show the Feb 13, 2026 move from 16% to 15.5% (i.e., no correction/overturning that eliminates the “change from 16%”).
Probability this assumption is wrong: 1%
3) “Change from 16%” is interpreted as any departure from 16% (as occurred on Feb 13), not as requiring a change occurring after 2026-02-16 specifically.
Probability this assumption is wrong: 3%
Putting these together, I leave a small but nontrivial tail for administrative/wording risk rather than economic uncertainty.
Probability: 98%
The extracted probability is: 98%
Task failed with error:
Traceback (most recent call last):
File “/home/runner/work/metaculus-forecasting-llm/metaculus-forecasting-llm/src/main.py”, line 84, in fetch_gpt_prediction
return await fetch_sync(get_gpt_binary_prediction, title, perplexity_summary_report, asknews_summary, asknews_deep_research, vision_analysis, grok_report, adjacent_markets_research, today, resolution_date, background, fine_print, resolution_criteria)
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
File “/home/runner/work/metaculus-forecasting-llm/metaculus-forecasting-llm/src/main.py”, line 74, in fetch_sync
return await asyncio.get_event_loop().run_in_executor(
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
TimeoutError
Task failed with error:
Traceback (most recent call last):
File “/home/runner/work/metaculus-forecasting-llm/metaculus-forecasting-llm/src/main.py”, line 84, in fetch_gpt_prediction
return await fetch_sync(get_gpt_binary_prediction, title, perplexity_summary_report, asknews_summary, asknews_deep_research, vision_analysis, grok_report, adjacent_markets_research, today, resolution_date, background, fine_print, resolution_criteria)
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
File “/home/runner/work/metaculus-forecasting-llm/metaculus-forecasting-llm/src/main.py”, line 74, in fetch_sync
return await asyncio.get_event_loop().run_in_executor(
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
TimeoutError
All predictions: [5, 98, 99, 99, 99]
Filtered predictions: [98, 99, 99]
Median reasoning:
Analysis: Russia Key Interest Rate Change from 16%
Current Status Assessment
Based on the research provided, this question appears to have already resolved. Multiple authoritative sources confirm that on February 13, 2026 (three days before today), the Central Bank of Russia cut its key interest rate from 16% to 15.5%:
- Official Resolution Source (cbr.ru/eng/press/keypr/): “Bank of Russia cuts the key rate by 50 bp to 15.50% p.a.” – February 13, 2026
- Reuters: “Russian central bank cuts key rate by 50 basis points to 15.5%”
- Trading Economics: “Bank of Russia cut rate to 15.5% on February 13, 2026”
- TASS: “Key rate lowered 0.5 pp to 15.5% at first 2026 meeting”
- Moscow Times: “Central Bank lowered key rate from 16% to 15.5%”
Resolution Criteria Verification
The resolution criteria state: “Resolves Yes if the Central Bank of Russia changes the key rate from 16% at any point before the end of 2026.”
The rate was changed from 16% → 15.5% on February 13, 2026. This satisfies the resolution criteria completely.
Critical Assumptions and Risk Assessment
Assumption 1: Research accuracy
- Probability of error: ~0.5%
- Multiple independent sources (Reuters, TASS, official CBR page, Trading Economics, Bloomberg, Moscow Times) all report the same information with consistent details
- The official resolution source is explicitly cited as confirming this
Assumption 2: Resolution criteria interpretation
- Probability of different interpretation: ~0.1%
- The criteria are unambiguous: “changes the key rate from 16%” – the rate was indeed changed from 16% to 15.5%
Assumption 3: Date consistency
- Probability of date error: ~0.2%
- All sources report Feb 13, 2026; today is Feb 16, 2026; resolution date is Dec 31, 2026
- The event occurred after the question start and before resolution date
Conclusion
The event qualifying for YES resolution has already occurred. The rate was changed from 16% to 15.5% on February 13, 2026, as confirmed by the official resolution source and multiple independent news agencies. There is essentially no meaningful uncertainty about this outcome.
The only remaining risk is some extremely unlikely scenario such as:
- All sources are systematically wrong (negligible probability)
- Some technical issue with the question’s resolution mechanics
- Misidentification of the official source
Probability: 99%
=== Forecast Result ===
{
“probability_yes”: 0.9866666666666667,
“probability_yes_per_category”: null,
“continuous_cdf”: null
}
=== Reasoning ===
Analysis: Russia Key Interest Rate Change from 16%
Current Status Assessment
Based on the research provided, this question appears to have already resolved. Multiple authoritative sources confirm that on February 13, 2026 (three days before today), the Central Bank of Russia cut its key interest rate from 16% to 15.5%:
- Official Resolution Source (cbr.ru/eng/press/keypr/): “Bank of Russia cuts the key rate by 50 bp to 15.50% p.a.” – February 13, 2026
- Reuters: “Russian central bank cuts key rate by 50 basis points to 15.5%”
- Trading Economics: “Bank of Russia cut rate to 15.5% on February 13, 2026”
- TASS: “Key rate lowered 0.5 pp to 15.5% at first 2026 meeting”
- Moscow Times: “Central Bank lowered key rate from 16% to 15.5%”
Resolution Criteria Verification
The resolution criteria state: “Resolves Yes if the Central Bank of Russia changes the key rate from 16% at any point before the end of 2026.”
The rate was changed from 16% → 15.5% on February 13, 2026. This satisfies the resolution criteria completely.
Critical Assumptions and Risk Assessment
Assumption 1: Research accuracy
- Probability of error: ~0.5%
- Multiple independent sources (Reuters, TASS, official CBR page, Trading Economics, Bloomberg, Moscow Times) all report the same information with consistent details
- The official resolution source is explicitly cited as confirming this
Assumption 2: Resolution criteria interpretation
- Probability of different interpretation: ~0.1%
- The criteria are unambiguous: “changes the key rate from 16%” – the rate was indeed changed from 16% to 15.5%
Assumption 3: Date consistency
- Probability of date error: ~0.2%
- All sources report Feb 13, 2026; today is Feb 16, 2026; resolution date is Dec 31, 2026
- The event occurred after the question start and before resolution date
Conclusion
The event qualifying for YES resolution has already occurred. The rate was changed from 16% to 15.5% on February 13, 2026, as confirmed by the official resolution source and multiple independent news agencies. There is essentially no meaningful uncertainty about this outcome.
The only remaining risk is some extremely unlikely scenario such as:
- All sources are systematically wrong (negligible probability)
- Some technical issue with the question’s resolution mechanics
- Misidentification of the official source
Probability: 99%
End
