Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has collapsed.

This is Phillip Godzin‘s condensed report. Full version here.

Grok response:

Title: How the Strait of Hormuz closure affects global oil supply
Source: Reuters[1]
Published: March 11, 2026
Summary: The U.S.-Israeli war on Iran has effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, halting around a fifth of global oil and LNG supply through the chokepoint. Shipping data shows hundreds of vessels, including LNG carriers, stranded outside unable to enter. No normalization of traffic reported, with severe restrictions ongoing.
Title: Iran war has blocked the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil chokepoint
Source: AP News[2]
Published: March 12, 2026 (19 hours ago)
Summary: The war has closed the Strait, blocking oil and gas shipments including LNG. Governments are planning to unblock it, but Iranian forces continue attacks and threats. Traffic remains at historic lows with no LNG transits reported recently.
Title: Why it’s so hard to get oil through the Strait of Hormuz right now
Source: NBC News[3]
Published: March 12, 2026 (20 hours ago)
Summary: Iranian statements vow no oil or LNG passage for U.S. allies, with mines and attacks enforcing closure. Tanker and LNG traffic suspended since late February. Reopening efforts face high risks from ongoing conflict.
Title: Iran war leads to historic closing of the Strait of Hormuz
Source: TPR[4]
Published: March 11, 2026 (16 hours ago)
Summary: Unprecedented full closure since war start, unprecedented for LNG and oil shipping halt. No prior full blockades occurred. Current status severely restricted with zero reliable LNG traffic.
Title: 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis
Source: Wikipedia[5]
Published: March 12, 2026 (4 hours ago)
Summary: Crisis began February 28, 2026, with US-Israel strikes prompting Iranian retaliation and strait blockade. LNG and oil traffic halted, affecting 20% global supply. Ongoing as of March 12 with no reopening.
Title: Iran Update Morning Special Report, March 11, 2026
Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)[6]
Published: March 11, 2026
Summary: Iran deployed naval mines in Strait, targeting commercial vessels including potential LNG carriers. Traffic heavily suppressed in Persian Gulf. No inbound/outbound normalization, restrictions severe.
Title: March 11, 2026: Iran War Maritime Intelligence Daily
Source: Windward.AI[7]
Published: March 11, 2026 (21 hours ago)
Summary: Transit activity through Strait heavily suppressed on March 10: only two outbound crossings, no inbound. Applies to oil and LNG tankers. Data confirms near standstill for international maritime traffic.
Title: Short-term energy outlook (EIA)
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)[8]
Published: March 10, 2026
Summary: As of March 9, Strait of Hormuz effectively closed to most shipping traffic amid Iran war. Impacts global LNG trade, with about 20% historically transiting. No data on reopening; forecasts assume prolonged disruption.
Title: Tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz comes to a standstill
Source: Reuters[9]
Published: March 5, 2026
Summary: Shipping data shows hundreds of vessels, including LNG, outside Hormuz unable to reach ports. Blockade entered early days with traffic zeroed. Relevant to ongoing halt as of March 12.
Title: Hormuz Strait traffic tracking day ten: only 3 oil tankers passed, LNG …
Source: Longbridge[10]
Published: March 11, 2026 (1 day ago)
Summary: Blockade day ten: transiting vessels far below normal, minimal oil tankers, LNG traffic negligible. Puts pressure on global supply. No signs of full reopening for international LNG.

The Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint for approximately 20% of global LNG trade, has been effectively closed to international maritime traffic—including LNG carriers—since late February 2026 due to the ongoing U.S.-Israel-Iran war.[5][8] Iran declared the strait closed on February 28, deploying mines, attacking vessels, and vowing to prevent passage for adversaries, leading to a near-total halt in shipments.[11][6] Major news outlets like Reuters, AP, and NBC consistently report traffic at historic lows: tanker transits down 90-97%, with LNG specifically suspended by oil majors and traders amid attack risks.[1][2][12]

As of March 11-12, 2026, the latest maritime intelligence shows suppressed activity: only 2 outbound crossings on March 10 (none inbound), three cargo ships struck by projectiles on March 11, and 13-16 total attacks since war start.[7][13] Isolated transits occurred (e.g., Indian and Saudi tankers), but these are exceptional, risky “chicken runs” not indicative of normalized LNG traffic; Iranian leadership reiterated closure as leverage on March 12.[14][15] U.S. officials discuss escorts, but none implemented; President Trump urged tankers to proceed without guarantees, while CSIS notes even Chinese ships denied passage.[16][17]

No major news reports indicate reopening or lifting of severe restrictions before May 2026; instead, updates emphasize escalation with mines, strikes, and vows to maintain blockade “as long as war continues.”[18] EIA’s March 10 outlook confirms effective closure to most traffic, projecting supply shocks without short-term resolution.[8] Historical context: prior threats never fully materialized, but current data (e.g., Bloomberg trackers) shows unprecedented standstill for LNG/oil.[19]

=== Forecast Result ===

Current Situation Assessment (March 12, 2026)

The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed since ~February 28, 2026, due to the US-Israel-Iran war. Key facts:

Traffic collapsed 90-97% from normal (~120 ships/day to 1-3)
LNG traffic is essentially zero; major traders have suspended operations
Iran has deployed naval mines and attacked vessels (13-16 attacks since war start)
Critical infrastructure (Fujairah pipeline, terminals) has been damaged
US destroyed 16 Iranian mine-laying boats on March 11 but hasn’t reopened traffic
No ceasefire negotiations reported; Iran reiterates closure as wartime leverage

Resolution Criteria Analysis

The question requires LNG traffic to be “not halted or severely restricted through May 31, 2026” — this is an extremely high bar requiring near-full normalization, not just partial resumption.

Key Pathways to YES Resolution

Path 1: Rapid war termination + fast normalization

Wars rarely end within 2-3 months of outbreak, especially with the current escalation trajectory
Even if a ceasefire occurred in March/April, mine clearance historically takes weeks to months
Post-conflict insurance normalization and shipping confidence rebuilding adds further delay
P(war ends by April) ≈ 15-20%; P(full LNG normalization within months of ceasefire) ≈ 25-35%
Combined: ~5%

Path 2: US military escorts normalize “all” LNG traffic

Trump’s escort proposals met with widespread skepticism
Mines make escorts insufficient for insurance underwriting
LNG carriers are high-value targets; operators extremely risk-averse
P ≈ 3-5%

Path 3: Iran voluntarily reopens as diplomatic gesture

Contradicts current Iranian strategy of using closure as leverage
P ≈ 2%

Critical Assumptions to Test

The war continues through most of the forecast period (~80% likely) — If wrong, opens possibility but doesn’t guarantee normalization
Mine clearance requires extended time post-conflict (~85% likely) — Even rapid demining takes weeks; “all LNG traffic” requires insurance normalization
Iran maintains willingness/ability to enforce closure (~75% likely) — US strikes may degrade capability, but Iran has demonstrated resilience

Accounting for Uncertainty

The situation is unprecedented (first full closure of Hormuz)
There’s ~2.5 months until deadline, which is short for conflict resolution + normalization
Default trajectory strongly suggests continued disruption
My historical overconfidence bias suggests I should be cautious about assigning even moderate probability

Overall Assessment

The combined probability across all pathways, accounting for overlap and the extremely demanding resolution criteria (“all international maritime LNG traffic” + “not severely restricted”), is very low. The current trajectory shows escalation, not de-escalation, and even optimistic scenarios struggle to achieve full normalization within the timeframe.