Phil: March 20, 2026, Russia cut its interest rate to 15%.

This is pgodzinai’s condensed report. Full version here.

Perplexity response:

# Citation Summary

#	Title	Date	Description
1	Russian Central Bank Lowers Key Rate to 15%	March 20, 2026	The Moscow Times report on the Russian Central Bank’s rate cut from 15.5% to 15%. The Central Bank cited continued downward trend in inflation, with annual inflation at 5.9% as of March 16. The decision marks the second rate cut this year and seventh since September 2024.
2	Russian central bank cuts key rate to 15%	March 20, 2026	RTE Business coverage noting the 50 basis point cut and that inflation slowed to 5.79% as of March 16, down from 5.84% a week prior. The Central Bank raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 4.5-5.5% and expects inflation to return to 4% target in 2027. Russia’s economic growth slowed to 1% in 2025 from 4.3% in 2024.
3	Russia’s central bank cuts key rate to 15 pct	March 20, 2026	Xinhua news report confirming the 50 basis point cut to 15% as the seventh consecutive reduction. The Central Bank stated the economy is approaching a balanced growth path and will consider further cuts at upcoming meetings depending on inflation trends and domestic/external risks.
4	Russian Central Bank Cuts Key Rate to 15%	March 20, 2026	E8 Markets analysis explaining that analysts expect the average key rate to settle around 14% in 2026, suggesting potential additional cuts ahead. The next policy decision is scheduled for April 24, 2026.
5	Russian Central Bank Cuts Key Interest Rate as Growth Slows	March 20, 2026	Asharq Al-Awsat report linking the rate cut to economic slowdown from Ukraine spending and Western sanctions, with the Central Bank noting slower growth in economic activity in early 2026.
6	As expected, the Bank of Russia lowered its key rate by 50 bps to 15%	March 20, 2026	AKM.RU analyst commentary predicting continued 50 basis point reductions at each meeting throughout 2026, with expectations of reaching 12% by year-end. Forecasts include 14% by end of Q2, 13% by end of Q3, and 12% by end of Q4.
7	Moscow, March 20, 2026 (AFP) – Russian central bank cuts key interest rate to 15%	March 20, 2026	AFP report confirming the rate cut to 15% with emphasis on economic slowdown pressures including Ukraine war spending and Western sanctions impact on growth.

Grok response:

Title: Bank of Russia cuts the key rate by 50 bp to 15.00% p.a. | Bank of Russia
Description: Official press release from the resolution source detailing the latest key rate decision.
Published Date: March 20, 2026
Summary: On March 20, 2026, the Bank of Russia cut its key rate by 50 basis points to 15.00% per annum, which is below the 15.5% threshold. The decision reflects a decelerating inflation trend and an economy approaching balanced growth, with high-frequency data showing slower activity in early 2026. The Bank forecasts annual inflation declining to 4.5–5.5% in 2026, with potential for further cuts depending on inflation sustainability and external risks.[1][2]
Title: Russian Central Bank Lowers Key Rate to 15%
Description: News article from The Moscow Times on the recent rate cut.
Published Date: March 20, 2026 (3 days ago)
Summary: Russia’s Central Bank lowered its key rate to 15% from 15.5% on March 20, 2026, citing continued downward inflation trends. The bank expects annual inflation to fall to 4.5-5.5% in 2026 and reach its 4% target in 2027. This marks the seventh consecutive cut in the easing cycle.[3]
Title: Russia Interest Rate
Description: Trading Economics update on Russia’s policy rate history and latest decision.
Published Date: March 2026 (updated post-March 20 decision)
Summary: The Central Bank cut the key rate by 50bps to 15% on March 20, 2026, aligning with market expectations and marking the seventh cut. Prior cuts included to 15.5% in February 2026. Historical high was 21% in 2025, with steady easing amid cooling inflation.[4]
Title: Summary of the Key Rate Discussion | Bank of Russia
Description: Official summary from February 2026 meeting.
Published Date: March 12, 2026 (discussing Feb 13 decision)
Summary: On February 13, 2026, the key rate was cut by 50bp to 15.50%. This set the stage for the subsequent March cut below 15.5%. Discussions noted declining price expectations and easing monetary conditions.[5]
Title: Russia’s central bank signals rates to come down further
Description: Reuters article on February rate decision and outlook.
Published Date: February 13, 2026
Summary: Bank cut to 15.5% in February 2026 and signaled more cuts ahead, raising 2026 inflation forecast slightly. This was followed by the March cut to 15%. Experts noted persistent pro-inflationary risks but easing economy.[6]
Title: The Central Bank predicted a significant reduction in the key rate in 2026
Description: Izvestia article on BoR forecast.
Published Date: March 23, 2026 (47 minutes ago)
Summary: Central Bank’s current forecast assumes significant key rate reduction throughout 2026. Post-March 20 cut to 15%, further easing is anticipated if inflation slows sustainably. This aligns with baseline scenarios for average rate of 13.5-14.5% in 2026 from earlier reports.[7]
Title: Central Bank of Russia confirms outlook for inflation at 4.5%
Description: Interfax report on inflation and policy.
Published Date: March 20, 2026 (3 days ago)
Summary: BoR maintains 2026 inflation forecast at 4.5-5.5%, supporting the rate cut to 15%. Underlying inflation expected near 4% in H2 2026. Decision reflects balanced growth path and cooling demand.[8]
Title: Russia Monetary Policy February 2026
Description: FocusEconomics analysis of February meeting.
Published Date: February 13, 2026
Summary: Baseline average key rate forecast 13.5-14.5% for 2026, indicating further cuts post-15.5%. Inflation seen slowing to 4.5-5.0% later in year. This preceded the actual March cut below 15.5%.[9]
Title: Monetary Policy Guidelines for 2026-2028 | Bank of Russia
Description: Official guidelines document.
Published Date: November 27, 2025 (updated context for 2026)
Summary: Outlines monetary policy goals, with scenarios for rate paths assuming inflation targeting at 4%. Baseline implies gradual easing from 2025 highs. Informed the series of 2026 cuts, including to 15%.[10]
Title: Key Rate | Bank of Russia
Description: Official historical key rate table.
Published Date: Updated March 23, 2026
Summary: Key rate set at 15.00% as of March 23, 2026, following March 20 cut from 15.50%. Daily rates stable at 15.50% prior to cut. Shows consistent downward trend from 21% peak in 2025.[11]

Recent Developments and Resolution Source Update

The resolution source (https://www.cbr.ru/eng/press/keypr/) confirms that on March 20, 2026—just three days ago—the Bank of Russia cut its key rate by 50 basis points to 15.00%, explicitly below the 15.5% threshold specified in the resolution criteria.[1][2] This follows a February 13, 2026, cut to 15.50% and a series of prior reductions from the 21% peak held through early 2025, with the background’s “current 16%” reflecting an earlier stage (likely late 2025).[5][4] As of March 23, 2026, the key rate remains at 15.00%, per the official daily table.[11]

=== Forecast Result ===

The official resolution source already shows a March 20, 2026 cut to 15.00%, which is below 15.5%. So under the plain wording of the resolution criteria, this should already be a Yes.

The only reason not to go to near-certainty is the extra prompt instruction that “the event must happen after today.” If that stricter interpretation is enforced, then the practical question becomes: will the Bank of Russia make another cut after March 23, 2026?

On that stricter reading, the case for Yes is still strong:

Russia is already in a clear easing cycle: from 21% down to 15.5% in February and 15.0% in March.
The Bank of Russia itself cited slowing inflation and softer activity.
Inflation has come down into the high-5% range, with the bank expecting further disinflation.
Growth slowed sharply in 2025, which supports additional easing.
External analysts broadly expect further cuts this year, many putting the average 2026 rate around 13.5–14.5 or lower by year-end.

Most decision-relevant assumptions and failure risks:

The March 20 cut will count under resolution.
Failure risk: moderate, because the prompt explicitly says the event must happen after today.
If a post-today cut is required, the Bank of Russia will still cut again in 2026.
Failure risk: modest, but real if inflation or geopolitical shocks force a prolonged pause.
The official source will continue to reflect the current history without correction/reversal ambiguity.
Failure risk: very low.

Blending the high chance that the market is effectively already resolved Yes with the still-high chance of another cut even under the stricter interpretation, I land in the mid-90s rather than the high-90s.